***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 7.9 2.9 75.2 71.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 8.4 9.8 8.2 3.4 78.8 75.9 2.3 3.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 9.5 11.3 8.5 3.3 77.3 74.2 2.7 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.3 -0.9 3.7 0.7 50.0 55.0 -2.8 -0.9 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.2 9.5 5.8 2.2 68.9 66.3 3.2 4.3 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 9.2 10.4 5.5 2.8 75.4 71.7 2.7 4.7 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 8.0 10.0 8.1 3.4 80.4 76.2 2.4 3.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 1.0 2.4 6.7 3.6 82.3 78.5 -3.5 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 9.3 10.7 7.4 3.1 76.0 72.1 3.3 4.2 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 9.5 11.2 7.3 3.7 80.4 77.2 3.2 5.1 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 9.3 10.9 6.4 2.8 74.4 71.6 3.6 5.2 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 9.6 11.4 6.7 3.2 79.5 75.6 3.3 5.1 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.7 6.3 3.1 79.0 75.5 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 9.9 13.4 9.0 4.4 86.8 80.8 3.4 4.7 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.7 4.0 2.6 -0.6 43.6 44.4 2.5 5.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 10.0 11.5 5.9 2.5 73.4 69.9 4.0 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.7 7.9 3.3 77.7 75.1 2.2 3.7 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 9.4 12.0 7.9 4.4 86.8 82.3 3.0 4.9 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 23 77 100 8.8 11.0 8.5 3.6 79.4 76.2 2.3 3.8 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 5.8 7.6 6.1 4.3 88.3 84.0 0.5 2.2 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.6 10.3 7.6 2.9 74.0 70.6 3.3 4.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 8.5 10.0 8.2 3.4 78.2 75.1 2.8 4.3 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 8.8 11.6 9.0 3.9 82.5 77.5 3.0 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 10.0 13.0 8.7 4.2 85.3 80.0 3.5 4.1 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.3 5.7 2.2 67.5 66.7 2.7 4.0 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 9.7 10.9 6.2 3.1 81.4 77.5 3.4 5.7 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 9.3 10.1 7.2 2.9 74.2 72.1 2.8 4.3 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.3 3.5 0.3 49.7 51.3 3.4 5.3 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 6.2 8.3 7.4 4.6 88.8 84.6 -0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 8.2 10.0 8.3 3.4 78.7 75.6 2.4 3.5 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------