***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 3.3 -1.5 38.6 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 3.8 3.6 -1.2 38.2 38.9 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.5 3.7 -1.6 35.6 36.9 4.0 7.0 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 -3.1 -3.4 -2.2 -4.7 18.4 19.6 -0.7 0.6 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.5 3.3 1.2 -2.5 26.1 30.6 3.9 7.0 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.8 4.0 1.4 -1.1 40.5 40.5 3.2 6.0 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.5 4.2 3.8 -0.7 44.0 42.2 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -1.0 3.1 0.2 49.4 47.9 -2.9 -1.0 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.7 4.8 2.8 -2.0 30.9 34.2 4.9 7.5 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.0 6.7 3.4 -0.4 44.3 44.2 5.1 7.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.7 4.2 1.9 -1.9 31.4 34.2 4.2 7.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.6 5.9 2.9 -0.5 44.9 43.6 5.3 6.8 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 7.3 7.4 3.7 0.3 55.1 51.3 4.2 6.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 8.5 8.9 6.7 1.4 57.6 56.6 4.8 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 0.8 -0.2 -2.4 -6.1 11.8 14.2 4.4 6.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.3 4.8 1.8 -1.6 34.9 37.0 4.6 7.4 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.1 3.6 2.9 -1.6 36.2 36.7 3.5 5.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 6.5 8.2 5.0 1.5 60.2 58.6 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 4.2 4.1 -0.9 41.2 41.0 3.9 6.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.1 4.2 2.6 67.0 67.3 1.7 2.8 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.9 4.1 2.7 -2.4 28.7 31.8 4.2 7.4 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.4 4.3 3.4 -1.4 37.5 38.3 4.0 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 7.4 6.3 5.1 -0.1 49.0 46.5 4.4 6.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 8.7 8.5 5.5 0.5 54.5 51.6 4.9 8.1 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.1 3.6 1.3 -2.3 32.4 32.7 3.6 5.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 6.1 6.1 3.4 0.8 55.2 55.1 4.2 5.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.6 5.4 3.4 -0.8 44.3 42.8 3.3 5.7 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 90 10 0 100 1.9 1.0 -2.1 -5.3 14.8 17.8 5.0 8.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.4 5.5 2.7 69.8 68.9 1.8 3.7 5.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 3.9 3.7 -1.2 38.8 39.2 3.2 5.2 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------