***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.6 1.1 56.0 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 1.4 63.7 63.3 -2.7 -1.5 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 1.0 1.0 -0.8 1.1 56.8 60.9 -0.7 0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -4.8 -6.2 -4.9 -0.6 37.3 39.7 -7.0 -5.2 -4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.5 0.3 47.0 50.4 -2.7 -2.1 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -2.4 -4.5 1.0 59.9 61.5 -4.1 -3.1 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 1.4 63.9 63.1 -2.3 -1.1 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -6.6 -6.7 -3.2 1.8 68.9 69.7 -9.1 -8.0 -6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -0.8 -2.2 1.1 57.5 59.8 -2.2 -0.9 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.7 -2.8 1.7 67.2 67.6 -2.1 -1.3 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -1.6 -3.4 0.6 49.9 53.2 -2.1 -1.6 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -2.3 -3.0 1.3 61.2 63.1 -3.9 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 -1.2 -1.3 -3.1 1.6 65.0 67.9 -2.8 -1.9 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 0.2 0.6 -0.9 2.2 77.7 76.1 -2.0 -0.8 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -2.1 -5.0 -1.3 30.9 34.6 -1.9 -1.1 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -0.9 -3.9 0.6 48.9 53.9 -2.1 -0.8 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 1.2 58.5 59.9 -2.7 -1.5 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -2.8 -2.4 -2.6 2.6 79.0 78.2 -4.3 -3.8 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -0.8 -0.5 1.5 65.2 64.9 -2.5 -1.1 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 -5.3 -4.6 -3.6 3.0 86.8 83.4 -8.2 -6.4 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.2 -1.5 0.9 53.9 56.9 -2.3 -1.4 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.1 -0.6 1.4 62.6 63.0 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -1.1 -0.5 1.6 69.6 68.6 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.8 -1.5 2.0 73.0 72.4 -2.4 -1.7 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -1.7 -2.8 0.6 49.2 53.3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 -1.2 -0.7 -2.6 1.8 71.0 72.4 -3.2 -2.1 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.3 1.2 57.5 61.7 -2.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -3.2 -4.8 -0.8 34.7 38.5 -3.4 -2.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 -2.6 -1.6 -2.6 3.1 87.3 84.0 -5.6 -4.2 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 1.3 62.6 63.0 -2.2 -0.9 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------