***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 0.4 1.7 67.1 63.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 0.0 -0.9 0.5 2.2 70.7 67.2 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 2.2 0.6 0.2 1.7 64.2 63.6 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -5.6 -6.5 -3.5 0.6 44.0 52.9 -7.3 -6.3 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -2.0 -2.6 -2.4 1.2 52.0 59.1 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 -1.6 -2.3 -3.4 1.8 58.2 66.6 -4.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 0.3 -0.9 0.6 2.2 69.3 67.1 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -5.5 -6.3 -2.6 1.9 64.0 66.1 -10.1 -8.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 0.4 -1.1 -1.3 1.6 60.5 61.8 -2.6 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 0.0 -0.4 -2.2 1.9 63.6 65.0 -3.0 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -1.4 -1.7 -2.3 1.5 55.1 61.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 -1.1 -2.5 -2.2 1.7 60.1 63.0 -4.3 -2.8 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 -0.4 -1.2 -2.6 1.8 60.6 64.7 -3.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 0.4 1.0 -0.8 2.1 72.6 68.2 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 -0.8 -2.2 -4.0 -0.3 37.1 44.9 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 0.7 -0.9 -2.7 1.5 55.8 62.0 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -0.2 0.0 0.7 2.4 71.0 68.0 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -2.0 -2.2 -2.4 2.3 68.3 68.6 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 2.1 69.7 66.6 -3.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 -4.6 -4.6 -3.5 2.4 69.1 70.8 -8.6 -7.2 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 1.5 61.3 61.3 -3.2 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.6 0.6 2.4 70.8 67.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 1.9 68.1 65.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.1 2.0 68.3 66.8 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -1.2 -1.6 1.4 56.7 61.3 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 -0.4 -1.1 -2.1 1.8 63.4 66.5 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 0.2 -0.7 -0.4 1.7 65.6 63.8 -3.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -3.5 -3.5 0.4 42.7 51.3 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -1.2 -1.1 -2.7 2.5 71.2 71.4 -6.9 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 0.5 -0.5 0.5 2.0 68.1 66.0 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------