***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 -0.5 1.9 57.0 61.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 -2.5 -0.7 -0.3 2.2 67.1 66.0 -4.5 -3.2 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 1.9 60.5 62.8 -2.9 -1.4 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -9.1 -9.6 -6.1 -1.3 28.2 37.8 -9.3 -6.9 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -3.3 -4.0 0.5 42.1 50.7 -4.1 -2.7 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -2.8 -2.8 -4.0 1.8 57.5 62.9 -5.4 -3.1 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -0.6 -0.2 2.3 68.4 65.9 -3.9 -2.8 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -6.4 -6.4 -2.6 2.8 70.7 71.4 -10.1 -8.4 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.1 1.8 53.6 60.1 -4.8 -2.9 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 -0.6 -0.4 -2.3 2.7 66.0 68.4 -4.2 -2.6 -0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.2 -3.2 -3.4 1.2 46.7 56.7 -4.1 -2.8 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -3.4 -2.2 -2.6 2.1 61.0 64.3 -5.5 -3.9 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 -2.2 -1.2 -3.0 2.1 60.6 64.6 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 0.1 1.8 -0.7 3.0 82.1 74.1 -3.6 -2.3 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 -4.6 -5.1 -6.8 -2.6 24.4 29.6 -3.6 -2.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -2.6 -4.0 1.0 45.8 54.7 -3.5 -2.2 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -0.7 -0.4 2.2 67.1 65.6 -4.2 -2.4 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 -2.5 -1.4 -2.0 3.6 80.8 76.9 -5.4 -4.5 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -0.4 -0.4 2.2 68.7 66.3 -4.6 -3.5 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 -5.0 -4.3 -2.9 3.8 82.4 80.7 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -2.6 -1.5 1.6 52.7 58.8 -4.5 -2.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 -1.2 -0.6 -0.4 2.2 70.3 66.8 -4.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 -1.5 -0.3 -0.4 2.3 72.2 67.9 -4.6 -3.7 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 -1.2 0.1 -1.1 2.8 75.7 71.8 -4.7 -3.4 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 -2.4 -3.4 -3.3 0.7 45.3 53.0 -4.0 -3.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -0.9 -2.5 2.3 65.7 68.1 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 -1.8 -1.8 -1.4 1.8 56.3 60.9 -4.3 -2.6 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -6.2 -1.7 27.2 35.7 -5.4 -3.5 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 -2.4 -0.3 -2.0 3.9 86.4 81.8 -7.1 -5.8 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 -2.3 -0.5 -0.3 2.1 64.7 64.9 -4.5 -3.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------