***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.01.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.02.2014.-09.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 -3.7 -1.1 36.4 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -5.3 -3.9 -1.2 34.2 38.5 -5.4 -1.1 0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 1.2 -1.8 -3.7 -1.0 35.1 38.2 -1.9 0.2 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 -8.9 -9.3 -8.4 -3.6 21.8 23.5 -7.6 -4.6 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -4.8 -5.5 -6.3 -2.1 27.4 30.0 -4.7 -2.3 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -5.5 -5.0 -7.8 -1.4 34.6 36.1 -5.0 -3.7 -2.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -4.7 -5.0 -4.1 -1.3 31.3 37.0 -4.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -7.4 -8.1 -5.3 0.6 47.9 51.0 -9.5 -7.9 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -3.9 -4.7 -0.8 34.0 36.2 -4.0 -0.8 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -1.9 -4.9 0.4 45.7 48.1 -4.7 -1.7 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -4.8 -5.1 -6.5 -1.9 29.0 31.1 -4.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 -3.0 -4.5 -5.4 -0.3 39.2 42.2 -5.2 -3.5 -1.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 -2.4 -2.8 -4.8 0.5 49.4 49.7 -4.4 -2.7 -1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 -0.5 -0.1 -2.0 1.8 59.3 61.6 -3.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 -4.4 -5.0 -7.6 -3.7 21.0 23.3 -3.5 -1.8 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -3.6 -4.4 -7.1 -2.0 29.3 32.1 -4.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -6.1 -5.1 -2.2 27.1 32.9 -5.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 -3.6 -3.1 -3.7 2.6 60.8 64.3 -6.1 -3.8 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -3.7 -3.4 -0.5 40.0 42.4 -4.8 -0.9 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 -4.8 -4.5 -4.4 3.6 74.6 75.4 -9.9 -7.5 -6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -4.0 -5.0 -4.3 -1.4 29.0 33.9 -4.5 -1.4 -0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -4.1 -5.0 -4.2 -1.3 35.4 38.6 -5.3 -1.1 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -1.5 -2.6 0.4 48.2 49.3 -4.3 -1.4 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -1.7 -3.0 1.3 51.9 54.6 -4.6 -2.3 -0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -4.4 -4.4 -5.6 -1.9 31.4 32.9 -4.2 -2.1 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 93 7 100 -2.7 -2.7 -4.2 1.1 53.2 55.4 -4.0 -2.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -1.1 -4.2 -4.0 -0.8 39.5 40.6 -5.1 -1.8 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 -5.6 -6.2 -8.1 -3.7 21.1 23.2 -5.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -1.5 -1.1 -3.1 4.0 76.9 77.5 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -4.9 -3.6 -1.0 35.0 39.3 -5.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------