***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 33.1 29.1 40.9 96.2 51.2 50.7 19.0 28.1 42.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 31.3 28.3 37.2 95.9 49.9 50.5 21.2 28.4 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 38.7 33.5 42.8 98.4 53.8 52.4 24.4 32.5 50.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 49.7 53.9 50.3 104.7 59.3 56.0 28.8 45.3 58.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 41.2 45.8 51.7 108.5 62.0 58.0 29.2 36.3 51.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 36.1 44.6 59.0 117.8 66.7 62.2 26.6 31.5 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.7 23.0 36.2 95.6 51.1 49.4 19.4 22.8 31.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 61.3 76.5 58.3 111.2 61.6 59.3 44.2 53.3 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.8 37.5 51.4 105.2 60.6 55.9 19.6 34.0 39.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 46.8 47.6 57.2 108.7 61.5 57.6 28.5 43.6 48.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 36.4 38.6 51.0 111.4 62.7 59.5 26.5 32.3 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 40.6 44.1 52.6 115.1 66.3 61.6 30.0 35.8 43.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 43.8 56.5 56.7 118.9 66.6 64.4 28.0 41.1 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 50.7 51.1 56.0 104.0 56.1 55.4 29.5 46.3 56.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 35.8 35.6 50.0 106.5 60.6 56.7 14.7 31.1 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 33.8 40.5 52.4 114.8 63.3 61.7 24.3 28.9 46.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 30.0 25.4 34.6 93.4 48.9 48.5 19.3 25.6 41.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 42.4 42.8 62.6 107.2 58.6 56.5 27.7 38.3 48.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 36.4 34.5 39.4 97.0 51.7 51.8 25.5 34.1 44.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 43.3 43.9 71.8 104.1 56.5 55.3 33.5 38.2 48.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 39.6 36.9 46.0 100.8 53.9 53.6 18.4 32.3 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 31.8 28.8 37.7 95.2 50.6 50.5 22.1 28.5 40.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 33.5 33.4 43.9 99.2 54.0 53.1 22.0 32.2 36.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 47.4 46.2 55.2 104.9 57.3 55.0 30.5 41.3 50.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 40.1 42.5 49.3 101.3 56.5 54.5 20.8 34.2 55.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 36.6 39.1 58.0 119.8 67.0 64.1 28.8 34.7 38.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 36.2 33.6 44.9 97.5 51.2 51.6 17.8 31.3 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 33.4 32.0 50.5 108.0 60.5 57.3 21.4 29.1 35.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 71.1 71.0 66.2 104.9 57.9 55.6 49.0 66.6 78.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 34.2 30.4 38.3 96.2 50.3 50.6 18.9 30.3 37.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------