***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.1 8.4 76.6 54.1 45.2 1.0 3.1 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.8 8.8 88.5 57.8 47.6 1.6 4.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.8 8.4 76.2 54.9 45.1 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.6 10.5 88.2 58.0 48.6 2.4 4.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.5 9.9 82.7 55.3 46.8 2.6 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.7 12.7 97.1 58.1 50.4 3.4 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.3 8.8 92.8 57.9 48.8 1.2 3.9 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.1 11.0 89.3 54.3 48.8 6.9 9.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.7 9.4 77.4 50.9 44.8 2.6 3.7 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.0 10.6 83.6 51.8 47.2 3.4 5.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.5 5.5 9.9 87.0 54.7 47.9 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.2 10.1 92.9 58.7 49.6 3.2 5.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.9 11.4 97.2 56.6 50.3 3.2 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.6 10.6 77.2 50.9 44.5 2.8 6.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.5 10.7 94.6 65.1 49.8 0.1 2.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.8 10.5 93.5 58.4 49.7 3.1 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.9 8.7 94.1 57.7 48.5 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.3 11.5 83.8 53.5 47.4 1.4 4.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.7 6.1 8.8 83.8 56.9 46.8 2.3 4.2 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.9 13.9 91.3 55.3 49.7 1.9 7.4 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.8 8.5 74.1 50.6 44.0 3.0 4.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.0 88.0 57.4 47.4 2.7 4.4 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.7 4.2 8.9 78.1 54.2 45.6 2.2 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.9 10.1 78.0 53.0 45.5 2.7 4.6 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.9 5.0 9.8 81.8 55.1 46.7 2.3 3.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.3 96.3 58.7 51.1 2.9 6.8 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.0 9.3 81.0 53.5 46.0 1.3 3.0 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.5 10.6 91.9 60.6 49.5 0.8 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 9.6 12.3 85.3 54.0 48.4 4.6 7.2 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.1 5.7 8.7 84.6 58.9 46.9 1.1 4.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------