***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.2 8.8 93.0 54.6 48.0 3.5 8.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.7 7.5 84.7 54.6 46.0 0.5 3.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.2 9.2 94.0 53.1 47.2 1.7 4.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.2 10.5 89.4 57.4 47.9 3.9 6.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.1 10.6 92.1 56.4 46.9 5.0 7.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.1 12.1 99.5 60.1 52.0 4.1 7.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.4 7.2 83.2 55.7 46.2 0.9 3.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 17.3 11.9 95.4 53.1 48.4 9.8 14.2 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.2 10.7 92.3 57.8 46.4 2.7 4.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.0 11.9 94.8 54.7 46.9 4.1 5.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 9.2 10.6 96.3 58.6 48.1 2.9 8.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.4 10.7 99.6 56.3 50.5 4.4 8.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.6 11.4 102.2 60.2 52.1 7.9 9.3 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.1 8.3 12.3 97.4 54.6 46.5 4.3 7.2 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.5 10.3 87.4 61.4 49.4 0.8 3.2 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.9 10.8 99.1 60.5 50.1 3.8 6.3 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.5 7.0 82.5 56.5 46.1 1.3 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.6 13.5 94.6 51.3 45.9 3.8 6.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.1 8.2 88.9 55.1 46.4 1.5 3.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 9.1 15.0 88.3 48.6 46.2 5.5 9.6 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.9 7.3 9.7 93.1 57.1 47.1 1.9 3.3 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.6 5.5 7.9 87.6 58.0 46.6 1.5 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.3 9.4 94.6 55.5 46.7 2.0 4.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.7 12.0 96.8 54.7 46.0 5.0 6.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.0 5.8 10.0 88.6 51.7 47.2 2.8 5.0 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.7 11.7 99.7 57.0 51.9 6.2 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.4 9.3 89.5 52.6 47.5 3.6 6.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 7.5 10.5 91.0 60.1 49.1 1.4 3.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 16.6 14.4 92.5 51.4 45.9 8.4 16.1 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.5 7.9 87.2 52.7 46.7 1.5 5.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------