***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.9 1.7 7.7 63.2 36.7 37.3 1.5 4.3 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.0 6.7 62.4 41.2 36.5 0.5 3.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.8 8.0 62.7 39.9 37.6 1.9 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.0 8.5 60.7 39.0 37.1 4.7 11.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.0 5.9 10.2 75.0 43.8 42.6 3.1 8.8 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.7 12.2 82.4 51.5 45.5 5.4 6.6 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.6 2.3 6.8 64.8 41.1 37.3 1.6 4.0 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.6 17.5 12.3 79.5 49.6 44.4 9.0 17.5 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.8 5.0 11.0 77.7 43.6 42.8 3.3 8.6 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.6 7.8 12.5 81.2 47.7 44.6 6.2 9.9 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.3 8.6 10.3 79.4 50.4 45.2 4.6 8.6 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.3 9.0 10.7 80.1 51.8 45.4 4.3 8.9 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.7 9.0 11.3 81.7 50.9 45.9 4.1 8.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.2 5.6 10.9 68.5 38.7 37.9 4.2 12.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.7 2.9 7.3 51.2 36.7 35.9 1.9 5.7 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.5 10.2 10.1 76.8 50.2 44.1 2.9 10.2 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.2 1.7 6.2 61.8 40.1 36.5 0.7 5.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 7.2 13.8 78.5 42.6 42.5 4.6 8.1 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.4 6.9 60.7 39.4 36.2 1.9 4.8 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.4 14.3 67.2 37.6 38.0 5.0 9.6 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 3.5 9.0 67.1 39.0 38.3 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.3 4.4 6.5 61.2 42.2 36.2 1.5 6.4 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.3 2.9 7.7 60.4 37.5 36.4 1.6 5.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.3 11.4 72.1 40.2 39.8 4.2 6.7 15.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.9 3.5 9.3 65.5 39.2 38.1 1.5 6.2 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.8 6.9 10.8 78.4 47.0 43.3 3.0 7.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.2 8.8 66.1 38.8 38.2 2.3 4.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.0 8.4 60.7 41.8 38.6 1.4 8.6 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.8 14.2 14.3 73.7 39.0 40.0 10.3 17.3 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.6 7.0 62.5 41.4 36.9 2.6 4.8 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------