***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 6.1 8.0 15.9 162.0 80.3 72.4 0.2 2.6 6.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.4 7.5 14.1 154.9 79.3 70.7 0.8 2.3 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 8.0 11.9 17.2 173.5 84.1 74.2 0.4 2.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 11.5 20.5 20.9 198.6 88.1 83.5 3.2 8.0 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 14.4 20.1 21.1 197.2 90.4 83.0 1.8 6.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 10.5 13.2 22.0 219.3 88.6 84.2 1.3 6.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.4 8.3 13.3 146.3 75.8 69.4 0.9 2.4 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 17.0 27.0 23.1 190.8 87.9 81.0 5.2 8.6 10.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 7.9 13.7 20.3 184.9 91.7 79.5 1.2 3.8 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 9.8 18.5 22.1 185.8 91.2 80.3 2.6 4.4 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.8 13.8 20.2 193.8 88.4 81.9 1.7 5.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 9.0 13.1 21.1 196.9 86.3 81.7 2.3 3.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 11.3 13.8 22.6 207.0 86.3 84.1 1.4 7.6 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 11.3 15.8 22.3 191.0 87.5 78.7 1.6 4.4 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 9.0 19.6 21.8 225.6 86.7 84.5 0.2 2.1 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 9.3 12.5 20.9 203.3 87.9 83.8 1.8 4.8 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 9.0 6.0 12.7 137.3 71.2 65.3 1.4 3.3 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 11.5 20.2 23.8 186.2 88.9 80.5 1.3 3.1 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 9.6 13.4 15.5 163.4 81.1 72.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 7.2 12.3 28.6 186.8 87.0 81.2 2.6 4.7 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 8.2 14.7 18.8 181.9 89.9 78.1 0.5 3.0 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 6.1 7.8 14.3 147.6 74.9 67.5 1.2 2.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 7.9 11.9 17.9 175.6 84.2 74.3 0.2 2.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.9 20.2 21.7 188.6 88.6 78.9 2.0 4.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 9.1 13.7 20.1 181.5 88.7 79.3 1.2 4.3 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 13.3 14.4 24.3 216.2 88.6 85.0 1.7 4.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 7.9 13.2 17.4 162.1 82.4 73.7 0.7 3.9 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 8.9 16.0 21.0 213.9 87.4 84.1 0.6 3.3 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 14.4 24.4 25.2 184.5 88.3 81.1 3.2 7.9 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 5.7 8.7 14.7 159.0 80.2 71.5 0.6 2.4 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------