***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 6.3 5.5 -0.4 43.6 42.8 5.5 7.6 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 6.5 5.5 5.3 -0.5 43.9 42.2 4.6 6.0 8.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.9 5.5 -0.6 41.4 40.7 5.3 7.1 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.4 3.4 -0.5 42.8 42.2 -1.2 0.7 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.0 6.1 3.9 -0.7 40.8 40.2 5.3 6.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.6 2.7 -0.8 34.7 38.3 4.3 6.1 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.4 4.9 5.3 -0.4 43.7 42.8 4.2 5.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 -2.9 -2.3 2.7 -1.2 32.5 34.8 -2.3 -1.7 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.6 6.4 4.5 -0.8 38.9 38.9 5.6 7.6 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.8 5.5 3.5 -1.1 33.7 35.8 5.5 7.0 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.2 6.1 3.7 -0.8 37.5 38.6 5.2 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.9 5.1 3.4 -0.9 34.8 37.4 5.0 7.3 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.4 4.9 3.2 -0.9 34.3 38.2 4.9 7.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.1 5.2 4.4 -1.3 31.3 34.5 5.5 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.0 5.9 4.2 -0.1 46.0 46.1 4.8 6.4 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 5.9 6.5 3.5 -0.7 37.6 39.5 5.5 7.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.2 4.8 5.0 -0.6 39.6 40.6 3.9 5.5 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.0 4.9 2.9 -1.3 29.6 33.1 5.2 6.3 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.1 5.5 5.4 -0.6 43.1 41.3 4.8 6.5 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 1.1 0.8 0.9 -1.5 26.8 30.5 1.9 2.7 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 6.4 5.1 -0.7 40.3 40.6 5.4 7.4 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.1 4.8 5.1 -0.7 36.7 39.5 4.6 6.3 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.8 5.4 -0.8 42.0 39.2 5.2 6.6 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.7 4.4 -1.2 33.1 35.1 5.7 7.8 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.3 4.0 -0.5 42.2 42.1 4.3 5.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.2 5.1 3.0 -0.8 35.2 38.2 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.3 5.6 4.8 -0.5 42.4 42.2 5.2 6.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.7 5.7 3.9 -0.4 44.2 43.4 5.3 6.9 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 0.9 0.8 2.1 -1.4 28.7 32.2 1.3 3.4 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.6 5.5 5.5 -0.5 43.9 42.7 4.6 6.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------