***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.1 8.2 0.3 50.4 51.4 5.9 8.0 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.5 8.3 0.3 50.1 51.0 4.5 6.5 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.5 8.5 0.3 49.6 51.1 6.0 7.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.3 0.7 6.2 0.2 50.7 51.2 -1.3 0.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.6 6.7 0.1 49.4 50.4 5.6 8.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.5 6.1 5.1 -0.1 47.9 48.0 5.4 7.1 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.7 8.1 0.3 51.1 50.7 4.6 6.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.5 -1.3 5.4 -0.2 44.4 47.6 -2.8 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.5 7.3 0.1 49.1 50.5 6.1 8.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.1 6.3 0.0 46.1 48.8 5.9 8.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.1 6.4 0.0 47.7 49.2 6.0 8.7 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.4 6.1 -0.1 46.0 48.1 5.5 8.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.6 7.5 5.6 -0.1 47.2 47.8 6.4 8.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.5 7.5 0.1 46.0 49.6 6.2 8.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.7 6.4 0.2 52.7 51.8 4.6 7.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.5 6.0 0.0 47.9 48.9 6.5 9.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.0 8.0 0.3 49.1 50.5 4.5 6.0 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.2 5.8 -0.1 46.4 48.3 6.2 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.2 8.4 0.3 49.3 51.0 4.7 6.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.1 3.3 -0.4 46.0 46.1 2.0 3.5 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.5 7.9 0.2 49.7 50.9 6.0 8.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.4 8.2 0.3 49.4 50.8 4.8 6.5 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.7 8.5 0.3 48.1 50.8 6.0 6.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.3 7.3 0.1 47.0 49.5 6.4 8.6 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.7 6.6 0.2 52.1 50.9 4.8 7.5 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.1 5.3 -0.2 45.5 47.6 6.1 8.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.1 7.4 0.2 51.4 50.6 5.3 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.0 6.4 0.2 51.4 51.3 5.2 7.7 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 4.3 4.8 -0.2 46.9 47.9 1.9 5.2 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.5 8.4 0.4 50.5 51.2 4.7 6.4 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------