***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.7 5.4 6.5 0.2 49.3 50.0 4.9 5.4 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.8 4.8 6.6 0.3 51.4 51.7 3.1 4.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.8 6.6 0.1 50.5 49.1 3.5 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -2.8 0.7 4.4 0.2 53.8 51.2 -2.7 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 6.0 4.7 -0.2 48.5 47.8 3.7 6.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.1 4.2 3.3 -0.6 39.3 44.8 2.9 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.3 6.5 0.3 51.6 51.6 2.8 4.2 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.3 -2.9 3.6 -0.6 39.7 43.6 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.0 6.4 5.4 -0.2 48.5 46.6 4.4 6.5 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.8 4.4 -0.5 44.3 44.5 4.2 6.2 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.1 5.7 4.4 -0.4 45.7 45.8 4.5 6.7 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.8 4.1 -0.6 39.8 43.9 4.1 5.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.7 4.8 3.7 -0.6 38.2 43.1 4.5 5.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.5 6.2 5.6 -0.3 48.0 46.5 3.6 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.2 4.8 0.5 56.8 54.6 3.4 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.8 5.9 4.1 -0.4 44.5 45.4 4.7 6.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.0 4.1 6.4 0.3 51.2 51.5 2.6 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.2 4.0 -0.6 45.2 43.4 3.3 5.6 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.1 6.7 0.3 51.6 50.9 2.9 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.1 1.9 -0.8 39.1 41.2 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.2 6.6 6.0 0.0 49.3 48.3 3.8 6.6 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.0 5.2 6.5 0.2 51.2 51.0 2.8 5.2 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.0 6.6 0.1 51.4 49.4 2.9 5.9 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.5 5.5 -0.3 47.6 45.4 3.7 6.5 9.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.7 5.0 0.2 51.6 50.5 3.6 4.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.8 3.5 -0.6 38.9 42.8 4.7 5.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.4 5.8 0.2 50.3 50.0 4.1 5.3 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.4 4.6 0.2 53.3 51.4 3.8 6.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.8 1.5 3.2 -0.6 43.9 43.1 0.1 2.6 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.0 6.7 0.3 51.5 51.1 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------