***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 3.1 3.7 -1.3 34.7 39.0 3.0 4.4 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.4 3.6 -1.3 36.5 38.7 3.1 4.3 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.8 -1.4 35.0 38.8 3.1 4.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -2.5 2.0 -1.2 35.3 39.4 -2.5 -0.8 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.1 2.2 -1.5 35.2 38.3 3.6 5.0 8.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.1 0.8 -2.1 27.9 34.0 3.3 4.8 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.3 3.6 -1.2 36.3 38.7 2.7 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -3.1 1.1 -1.9 34.0 36.1 -3.3 -1.4 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.8 3.6 2.8 -1.6 34.5 38.3 3.4 5.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.7 1.8 -1.8 34.1 37.1 3.5 5.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.8 1.9 -1.7 34.4 37.3 3.7 5.5 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.2 1.7 -1.9 33.5 35.8 3.2 5.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.2 4.2 1.2 -2.1 30.4 33.8 4.4 5.6 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.1 3.6 2.8 -1.9 32.4 37.1 3.6 5.3 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.3 2.6 -0.8 36.9 41.2 2.5 6.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.6 1.6 -1.8 32.1 35.8 4.8 6.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.7 3.4 -1.2 35.1 38.7 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.6 1.4 -2.0 32.5 35.9 3.6 5.1 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.7 -1.4 36.5 38.7 3.2 3.9 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 31.5 34.1 0.6 3.4 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.2 3.4 -1.5 34.1 39.2 3.2 4.8 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.4 3.6 3.5 -1.4 32.6 38.3 3.6 5.1 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.9 3.7 -1.5 35.4 38.3 3.8 4.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.0 3.6 2.7 -1.8 33.1 37.2 3.6 4.8 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.7 3.4 2.4 -1.3 35.1 38.7 3.1 4.8 7.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.6 4.0 1.1 -2.0 28.3 33.8 4.1 6.1 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 3.4 3.0 -1.4 34.7 38.3 3.4 4.8 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.1 2.3 -1.2 34.9 39.6 3.7 6.0 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 -2.0 31.9 35.2 0.0 1.9 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.2 3.7 -1.3 35.8 38.7 2.9 4.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------