***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-08.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.1 3.1 3.3 -1.0 39.1 39.4 2.1 4.9 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.1 2.8 -1.4 35.8 35.0 2.8 5.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.2 -1.5 34.5 34.0 3.7 5.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.6 -1.6 1.0 -1.1 35.6 36.5 -1.8 0.7 4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.0 3.7 1.9 -1.2 34.7 36.2 3.5 5.8 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.2 3.6 1.6 -0.5 40.5 42.7 2.7 5.5 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.2 3.1 2.9 -1.1 38.7 37.2 2.0 4.8 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -2.9 -3.3 0.6 -2.1 28.4 29.5 -3.1 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.1 4.1 2.7 -1.5 32.9 35.1 4.1 6.5 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 2.9 3.1 1.3 -2.1 28.3 29.9 4.6 6.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.0 2.1 -1.2 35.8 36.6 3.7 6.2 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 7.2 4.6 1.7 -1.3 35.6 36.3 4.1 6.0 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.8 4.9 2.4 -0.6 42.4 42.8 3.6 5.9 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 2.3 3.4 1.8 -3.0 22.3 23.6 4.7 7.6 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.7 6.0 2.9 -0.3 44.7 44.2 4.6 6.2 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.6 4.7 2.3 -0.6 39.9 41.4 4.1 6.4 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.2 2.3 -1.7 34.9 32.9 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 2.4 1.8 0.5 -2.7 21.9 25.4 4.0 5.8 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.0 2.9 -1.6 33.6 33.2 3.0 5.5 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 -1.2 -2.6 20.6 24.3 1.2 2.7 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.8 4.2 3.1 -1.4 34.7 35.8 3.9 6.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.3 3.9 2.3 -2.0 34.1 30.7 3.7 6.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 1.5 3.6 2.8 -1.9 29.2 30.3 4.1 5.5 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.9 1.9 -2.6 23.7 26.5 4.4 7.2 10.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 5.6 3.4 2.1 -1.1 37.9 38.2 3.1 4.5 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.8 4.7 1.9 -0.4 42.6 44.3 3.3 5.0 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.0 3.9 2.8 -0.9 39.9 40.0 3.0 4.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.9 6.5 2.1 -0.7 39.7 40.6 5.7 7.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 -0.2 -0.8 -0.3 -2.7 20.6 24.1 0.8 2.7 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.4 3.1 -1.2 37.1 37.0 2.3 4.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------