***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -0.8 -1.4 0.3 49.6 50.4 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -1.4 -1.9 -1.8 0.1 46.4 46.8 -2.6 -1.7 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 0.9 0.5 -1.7 0.3 48.3 48.8 -0.7 0.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -5.0 -5.8 -4.2 0.1 45.2 46.8 -6.9 -5.4 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.4 -3.8 0.1 43.8 47.2 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -3.3 -5.5 0.0 44.7 47.4 -4.3 -3.3 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.5 -1.7 0.1 46.8 47.4 -2.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -9.4 -8.7 -5.6 -0.4 40.8 42.5 -9.1 -8.3 -7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -1.4 -3.1 0.2 45.2 48.4 -2.2 -1.1 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.9 -0.3 42.0 43.7 -2.1 -1.6 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 -1.6 -1.9 -4.0 0.1 46.1 47.6 -2.2 -1.8 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -3.4 -4.5 0.0 42.8 46.2 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 -1.9 -2.4 -4.6 0.0 44.6 47.1 -3.1 -2.1 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -1.6 -3.8 -0.5 37.8 39.9 -2.1 -1.0 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 -1.0 -1.0 -3.1 0.6 51.4 53.4 -2.1 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -0.7 -1.0 -4.3 0.2 46.9 48.8 -2.2 -0.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -0.1 44.8 44.6 -2.8 -1.5 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -5.0 -4.2 -6.1 -0.6 36.2 40.3 -4.3 -4.0 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -1.8 -1.9 0.1 46.3 46.6 -2.5 -1.5 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -8.6 -8.2 -7.6 -0.8 36.7 39.5 -8.4 -6.7 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -1.3 -1.6 -2.1 0.3 46.6 49.3 -2.3 -1.5 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -0.2 42.9 43.6 -2.7 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 -1.7 -2.1 -2.1 0.0 44.6 45.9 -2.6 -1.8 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -2.2 -3.8 -0.2 39.7 43.2 -2.5 -1.9 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.8 -3.1 0.2 49.8 49.6 -2.7 -1.8 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -2.4 -4.5 -0.1 43.6 45.2 -3.4 -2.1 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -1.1 -1.2 -2.1 0.3 50.6 50.4 -2.2 -1.3 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.6 -3.7 0.4 48.7 50.1 -3.7 -2.6 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -5.9 -5.8 -6.8 -0.9 36.2 38.8 -5.9 -4.4 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 0.2 47.8 48.1 -2.2 -1.1 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------