***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -1.9 -1.1 0.4 46.5 49.2 -2.5 -1.6 0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -4.7 -2.9 -1.4 0.3 48.0 50.6 -3.9 -2.8 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.2 -1.2 -1.4 0.3 44.0 49.8 -1.6 -0.8 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -5.8 -7.0 -4.0 -0.1 44.2 48.8 -8.0 -6.7 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -3.1 -3.9 -0.3 41.2 47.9 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 -5.3 -4.9 -6.0 -0.7 35.1 43.8 -5.0 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -4.0 -2.8 -1.3 0.4 47.7 50.5 -3.4 -2.7 -1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -11.2 -10.7 -5.6 -0.7 35.0 44.2 -10.9 -9.0 -7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 -3.1 -0.2 42.0 48.3 -3.0 -1.7 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 -3.4 -3.1 -5.0 -0.6 37.4 44.8 -3.6 -1.5 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -3.2 -4.3 -0.4 35.1 47.0 -3.6 -2.1 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 -4.8 -5.1 -4.8 -0.7 33.2 44.9 -5.2 -3.0 -2.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -3.3 -5.2 -0.8 32.9 42.9 -3.3 -2.1 -1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -1.1 -2.0 -3.5 -0.4 37.7 45.1 -2.8 -1.8 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -1.2 -1.7 -3.2 0.2 46.9 50.8 -2.4 -1.5 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 -3.2 -2.7 -4.7 -0.5 34.0 45.9 -2.8 -1.6 -0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -3.9 -2.7 -1.4 0.2 48.1 50.2 -3.3 -2.6 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -5.5 -5.1 -6.1 -0.9 35.2 42.0 -5.1 -4.0 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.9 -1.5 0.3 46.2 50.5 -3.8 -2.8 -1.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 -9.4 -9.3 -7.4 -0.9 35.7 41.7 -9.4 -7.2 -6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -4.0 -2.7 -2.0 0.1 43.3 49.2 -3.0 -2.4 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 0.2 46.9 49.9 -3.6 -2.7 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -2.0 -2.6 -1.8 0.2 44.0 49.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.9 -3.8 -0.4 38.5 45.5 -4.1 -2.4 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -2.5 -3.0 0.2 46.1 49.8 -3.3 -2.2 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -4.2 -3.8 -4.9 -0.8 36.3 42.4 -4.1 -2.5 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.5 -2.0 0.3 45.7 49.5 -3.9 -2.3 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -2.1 -3.8 -3.8 0.0 42.5 49.3 -4.3 -2.5 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -8.0 -6.9 -6.8 -1.1 35.6 41.0 -7.4 -5.6 -3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 46.1 50.2 -3.3 -2.4 -1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------