***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.01.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -4.0 -3.1 -1.2 29.6 36.5 -3.8 -1.5 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -4.0 -4.5 -3.6 -1.2 30.0 36.3 -4.4 -2.3 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.5 -1.2 29.0 36.7 -2.7 -0.9 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -9.0 -9.0 -6.1 -1.4 27.4 34.2 -8.4 -6.8 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -5.9 -1.6 27.5 33.7 -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 -5.9 -5.1 -7.3 -1.6 28.4 34.5 -4.6 -3.3 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 -3.7 -4.0 -3.3 -1.1 30.3 36.4 -3.9 -2.5 0.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 -10.5 -10.6 -7.8 -2.2 28.5 32.3 -9.7 -8.2 -6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -4.4 -5.3 -1.6 29.2 35.4 -4.1 -2.3 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -4.0 -4.4 -7.2 -2.2 28.5 32.7 -3.3 -2.2 -0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -4.0 -3.8 -6.1 -1.6 29.8 34.2 -3.7 -1.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 -5.8 -5.0 -6.6 -1.7 29.6 34.1 -4.7 -3.4 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 -4.5 -4.6 -6.6 -1.6 29.5 34.5 -4.3 -2.4 -1.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -4.0 -3.1 -6.1 -2.2 25.3 32.0 -2.8 -2.0 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 -3.6 -3.5 -5.1 -0.8 31.1 38.4 -3.3 -1.4 -0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -3.3 -6.2 -1.4 30.2 35.3 -3.1 -1.5 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -4.1 -3.6 -1.2 30.3 36.5 -3.9 -1.8 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 -6.0 -5.2 -8.5 -2.7 26.6 31.4 -4.7 -4.1 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -4.5 -4.2 -3.7 -1.3 29.5 36.3 -3.8 -2.7 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 -10.1 -10.0 -9.6 -2.6 27.9 31.9 -8.9 -7.5 -5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -4.1 -4.3 -4.1 -1.3 27.9 36.1 -4.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -3.8 -1.4 28.5 35.7 -3.8 -2.5 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -4.6 -4.1 -4.1 -1.4 27.5 35.7 -4.0 -2.9 -0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 -4.4 -4.2 -6.1 -2.0 27.4 33.4 -3.6 -2.7 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -5.2 -1.4 27.2 35.1 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 -4.5 -4.1 -6.5 -1.7 27.6 32.5 -3.7 -1.9 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -4.1 -1.3 28.2 36.0 -3.8 -1.7 0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -4.8 -5.3 -5.6 -1.1 29.9 36.5 -5.2 -2.9 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 -7.1 -7.5 -9.0 -2.7 27.1 30.9 -7.1 -5.6 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -3.9 -3.4 -1.2 29.9 36.4 -3.7 -2.5 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------