***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 33.5 27.2 42.6 96.5 50.0 48.9 14.2 27.2 41.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 18.6 29.4 38.8 100.0 53.9 50.2 18.8 28.3 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.7 29.3 41.9 94.1 47.8 47.3 24.0 30.6 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 28.8 45.3 50.6 93.1 47.0 47.1 25.9 45.4 57.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 24.4 32.7 46.3 88.7 42.4 44.0 28.0 36.3 49.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 26.0 30.0 46.8 92.4 46.3 45.8 25.5 31.5 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 26.1 23.0 38.2 100.9 55.6 50.9 18.1 21.4 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 44.8 49.6 51.1 89.9 44.6 44.5 45.5 55.0 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.3 26.6 47.4 90.6 42.9 45.2 20.2 32.0 39.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.4 34.0 49.9 88.7 43.2 44.1 29.5 35.1 48.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 22.5 29.5 46.8 90.9 45.4 45.1 25.1 32.0 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 26.6 35.4 46.6 91.8 45.5 45.5 29.9 35.8 43.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 29.6 36.0 47.9 90.4 46.1 44.2 28.1 41.2 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 33.8 43.3 51.8 90.8 44.6 44.0 29.6 46.3 53.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 18.7 32.7 52.3 102.0 57.2 52.1 16.1 27.3 42.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 19.7 26.5 46.1 90.6 44.6 44.6 23.7 28.9 44.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 16.5 30.0 38.0 101.7 56.4 50.8 18.6 25.0 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 27.1 28.0 50.6 85.6 40.7 41.5 26.9 35.0 48.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 20.0 34.5 39.8 98.5 52.0 49.1 21.7 34.1 42.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 27.7 35.5 64.7 87.0 39.8 42.1 33.5 40.2 48.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.9 23.6 44.9 91.6 44.7 45.6 17.8 32.3 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 18.7 30.6 40.2 100.6 53.9 50.1 21.1 28.5 40.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 19.7 31.4 42.2 95.8 50.3 47.3 19.5 31.4 35.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 28.9 36.2 47.9 88.7 43.5 43.7 30.8 38.9 50.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 23.0 32.8 48.2 92.9 47.7 46.6 18.6 34.2 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 28.8 34.9 48.1 92.8 47.5 46.0 27.8 35.0 41.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 19.8 28.1 45.0 96.4 51.5 48.7 16.3 27.8 47.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 19.8 28.8 49.5 96.5 50.5 48.5 18.7 28.6 35.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 50.9 50.7 54.4 85.1 38.8 40.8 46.9 66.9 80.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.2 30.1 39.8 99.5 53.5 50.0 16.3 25.8 37.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------