***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.8 11.6 96.1 55.9 50.3 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.1 8.9 11.3 110.3 65.3 54.2 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.7 11.9 97.6 57.3 51.1 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.5 15.0 107.9 61.0 53.6 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.7 14.3 102.3 62.2 52.6 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 15.5 115.7 66.1 55.5 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.8 7.8 10.5 105.2 63.4 53.3 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 18.1 16.1 110.2 66.4 53.8 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.5 14.8 102.6 62.3 53.4 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 12.7 15.8 104.6 64.6 53.6 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.6 14.3 107.1 65.1 53.6 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 10.6 14.5 111.6 66.3 53.6 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 14.7 15.6 113.7 64.9 54.1 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.4 9.8 16.1 104.5 60.2 54.4 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 13.6 15.1 117.7 67.4 56.5 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.3 14.6 110.9 63.4 53.7 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.1 10.7 108.5 65.5 54.1 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.6 16.1 101.2 60.5 53.1 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.8 11.7 109.5 63.7 53.9 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.4 21.2 110.4 64.0 54.0 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.7 13.0 96.0 57.6 51.1 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.3 8.8 11.8 110.7 64.8 54.6 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.9 12.5 104.9 59.8 53.4 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.2 14.7 100.5 59.5 53.3 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 8.7 13.5 96.6 57.0 50.4 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 14.2 15.6 119.9 65.7 56.6 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.6 12.2 95.8 57.6 50.1 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.9 12.5 14.9 113.9 65.3 55.3 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 16.9 17.1 101.6 60.2 53.1 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.7 11.4 106.5 62.5 53.1 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------