***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.1 11.9 12.6 124.7 65.7 59.2 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 11.5 10.7 118.4 67.2 57.4 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.6 12.0 117.1 63.7 57.6 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.6 11.9 13.9 114.2 64.1 55.9 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.9 13.8 113.2 61.8 55.4 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.6 12.7 102.4 60.5 52.4 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.0 11.0 122.6 68.6 57.2 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.6 20.1 14.5 107.7 60.9 53.2 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.5 14.3 113.9 62.9 55.4 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.2 11.7 14.8 110.1 60.7 54.1 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.6 13.3 110.2 61.4 54.1 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.1 12.2 12.8 106.9 61.6 53.0 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.9 11.1 12.9 104.2 60.6 52.2 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.2 14.5 106.8 61.7 55.8 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.9 11.3 14.3 119.4 68.3 57.1 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.8 8.9 12.6 105.7 60.7 52.7 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.5 10.9 124.8 70.1 56.9 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 10.9 15.0 105.8 59.8 53.0 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 8.5 10.7 115.2 65.7 57.4 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.5 18.4 100.8 56.6 51.0 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.5 13.5 118.5 65.4 57.4 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.7 11.0 121.7 68.7 57.8 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.7 8.3 11.2 110.0 63.5 56.4 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.8 8.7 13.9 109.0 61.8 55.2 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.4 11.2 14.6 124.8 68.7 58.9 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.7 10.2 13.1 108.5 61.3 53.6 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 10.0 13.6 127.4 67.6 59.3 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.7 13.3 111.5 64.7 55.0 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.7 20.0 15.9 103.3 59.7 52.3 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.8 11.1 118.0 64.8 57.5 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------