***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.2 7.1 1.0 53.2 57.3 5.1 7.1 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.2 6.8 0.5 46.9 52.7 4.5 5.7 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.1 7.6 1.1 53.4 57.6 5.4 6.8 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.8 1.1 4.8 1.5 60.2 61.7 -1.3 0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.7 6.3 1.4 59.4 61.3 5.3 6.3 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 7.8 7.2 5.6 1.9 69.6 67.2 4.1 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.2 5.1 6.6 0.4 46.4 52.2 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -0.5 -0.7 5.8 1.6 64.9 64.9 -2.5 -1.7 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.9 7.1 1.4 58.5 60.8 5.7 7.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.9 6.3 1.5 61.2 62.6 5.3 6.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 9.0 7.9 6.9 1.7 62.3 64.0 5.2 7.3 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.6 8.3 6.6 1.8 66.9 66.1 4.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 8.5 8.4 6.7 2.0 68.5 68.5 4.8 7.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.6 7.3 1.2 55.9 59.1 5.3 7.7 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.8 5.5 1.2 55.3 59.1 4.6 6.1 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 9.2 8.3 6.4 1.7 65.6 65.3 5.5 7.6 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.9 4.7 6.4 0.1 45.2 50.0 3.9 5.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.2 6.2 1.6 62.0 63.9 4.9 5.8 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.0 7.1 0.6 48.2 54.1 4.7 6.0 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.6 4.2 4.2 1.5 65.5 65.2 1.3 2.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.4 7.5 1.2 55.4 59.2 5.4 7.1 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.6 5.3 6.7 0.2 46.8 51.2 4.4 5.7 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 6.8 6.3 7.5 0.8 51.2 56.0 5.0 6.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 7.8 8.1 7.3 1.4 58.0 61.0 5.5 7.3 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.6 6.1 1.2 55.6 59.6 4.4 5.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.1 6.1 1.9 71.9 70.1 4.8 6.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.0 6.9 6.7 0.9 53.5 57.4 4.7 6.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 7.2 8.0 5.3 1.4 58.9 61.0 5.3 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 4.8 4.4 5.7 1.7 65.7 66.0 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.7 6.9 0.7 48.8 54.3 4.5 5.8 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------