***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.5 7.8 7.4 0.1 51.3 51.6 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.9 7.1 -0.2 47.6 50.0 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.8 7.8 0.1 49.8 51.2 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.7 0.1 5.0 0.3 52.2 52.9 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.3 6.2 0.4 53.0 53.8 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.0 5.1 0.8 54.9 56.2 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.4 7.1 -0.1 48.6 50.3 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -0.5 5.6 0.7 53.4 55.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.9 6.8 0.4 52.3 53.4 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.4 6.1 0.6 53.3 54.6 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.1 6.4 0.6 53.5 55.1 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 6.3 0.6 53.7 55.7 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 5.8 8.2 5.7 0.8 56.3 56.8 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.5 7.5 6.9 0.3 49.7 52.3 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.5 5.3 0.0 48.7 50.9 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.6 6.0 0.7 54.6 55.8 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.3 6.9 -0.4 45.7 49.0 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 6.0 0.6 53.6 54.6 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.7 7.4 -0.1 47.2 50.3 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.9 3.7 0.7 54.5 55.7 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.4 7.3 0.2 51.4 52.3 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.5 7.0 -0.4 43.1 48.9 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 6.2 7.8 0.0 47.3 50.9 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.8 6.9 0.4 51.0 52.9 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.6 5.9 0.2 52.7 52.1 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.1 8.4 5.4 0.7 56.0 56.5 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.2 6.8 0.1 52.7 51.9 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.6 5.2 0.3 51.1 52.6 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.3 5.3 0.7 54.4 55.4 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.1 5.5 7.2 -0.1 48.4 50.7 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------