***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 4.5 5.0 -1.5 30.5 39.1 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 2.7 4.6 -1.9 27.5 37.4 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.4 5.4 -1.5 33.7 40.1 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -1.2 2.8 -1.1 38.1 42.4 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.0 4.1 -1.0 39.2 42.6 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.4 4.0 3.2 -0.7 43.2 45.4 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.8 2.0 4.5 -1.9 26.2 36.6 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -3.0 3.7 -0.7 41.9 45.0 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.2 4.7 -1.1 37.7 42.4 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.9 4.1 -0.9 40.1 44.0 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.4 4.3 -0.9 39.0 43.8 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.0 4.3 -0.8 40.0 44.6 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.3 3.8 -0.7 40.6 45.5 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 3.4 3.8 4.8 -1.3 35.4 42.1 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.0 3.6 3.1 -1.2 37.2 41.7 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.4 3.9 -0.9 38.8 44.2 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.8 1.9 4.4 -2.0 26.0 36.0 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.1 4.1 -0.8 41.0 44.7 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.5 4.9 -1.7 30.0 38.6 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.1 1.4 2.1 -0.7 42.9 45.1 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.3 5.1 -1.2 36.5 41.2 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.7 2.3 4.7 -1.9 29.5 37.6 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.9 2.8 5.4 -1.6 33.2 39.9 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.3 4.9 -1.1 37.4 43.0 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.6 3.6 -1.3 35.2 40.4 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.8 3.8 -0.5 41.6 46.3 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.4 -1.5 30.8 39.0 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.9 3.0 -1.1 37.7 42.6 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -0.7 1.5 3.6 -0.6 41.8 45.5 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.7 2.5 4.7 -1.8 28.2 38.0 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------