***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.3 5.4 -0.5 41.0 47.4 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.4 4.5 5.2 -0.9 38.7 44.6 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.9 4.7 5.9 -0.6 41.5 47.3 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 1.3 0.2 2.6 -0.1 49.7 51.8 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.8 4.6 -0.1 47.3 51.8 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 8.5 6.1 4.6 0.9 56.4 58.6 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.2 5.1 -0.9 38.6 44.3 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.7 4.6 0.5 49.1 56.1 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.9 6.4 5.5 -0.1 46.6 51.1 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.8 4.9 0.1 45.8 52.9 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.2 5.4 0.2 47.9 53.5 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.4 5.3 0.7 50.3 56.8 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.3 5.8 0.9 52.0 58.1 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.0 5.9 5.6 -0.5 43.9 48.1 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.1 3.8 -0.1 48.9 51.3 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.5 5.0 0.4 48.3 54.9 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.4 3.7 4.8 -1.1 36.8 43.2 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.7 4.8 0.2 46.6 53.8 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.1 5.4 -0.8 39.6 45.4 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.0 3.4 0.6 49.4 57.2 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.1 5.3 5.8 -0.4 44.4 48.7 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.9 4.7 5.1 -1.1 38.0 43.6 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.0 5.8 -0.7 41.1 46.5 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.2 5.1 5.7 -0.2 43.8 50.1 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.6 4.5 4.4 -0.3 44.4 49.4 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 8.9 7.5 5.4 1.4 56.9 62.2 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.3 5.1 -0.5 41.6 47.7 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.3 3.3 -0.1 49.1 51.8 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.4 4.6 0.5 48.6 56.3 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 4.2 5.3 -0.7 39.9 45.5 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------