***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-07.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 10.3 11.3 10.7 5.8 87.0 85.4 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 10.5 11.3 10.2 4.8 81.7 80.9 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.8 11.5 6.2 87.3 85.7 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 3.4 5.1 8.7 6.7 88.7 87.2 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 10.4 11.5 10.3 6.3 89.1 87.3 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 8.8 10.6 9.6 6.5 91.7 89.5 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 9.8 10.8 9.7 4.5 78.9 79.1 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 1.6 3.8 9.4 6.1 87.9 86.7 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 11.9 12.9 11.3 6.3 87.9 86.5 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 11.4 12.1 10.3 6.2 86.9 85.8 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 11.3 12.3 11.3 6.7 90.2 88.5 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 10.9 11.8 10.4 6.5 90.9 89.2 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 10.3 12.4 11.4 6.8 93.3 90.6 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 12.7 13.8 11.8 6.2 86.7 85.0 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.5 9.9 6.1 84.6 84.6 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 10.5 12.9 10.8 6.8 92.8 89.6 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 9.2 9.6 9.3 4.0 74.4 76.6 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 8.4 10.7 9.9 6.4 89.4 87.5 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 11.0 11.7 10.6 5.2 84.3 82.6 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 5.8 6.7 7.5 5.5 86.5 85.6 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 11.3 12.3 11.8 6.2 88.1 86.2 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 10.3 10.9 9.9 4.3 78.8 78.8 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 5 95 100 10.8 11.8 11.0 5.6 86.2 84.1 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 12.4 13.8 11.7 6.4 88.8 86.7 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 9.1 10.4 10.4 6.2 88.2 86.9 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 9.0 11.9 9.7 6.3 93.1 92.0 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 10.0 11.9 10.3 5.6 86.4 85.1 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 10.0 11.2 9.6 6.5 86.3 85.7 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 7.1 8.6 9.3 6.4 91.0 88.9 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 10.2 11.2 10.4 5.2 83.3 82.9 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------