***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 -0.6 -0.8 -0.3 1.0 54.1 58.8 -1.7 -0.9 -0.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 -1.6 -1.9 -0.8 0.7 48.5 54.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 0.7 0.4 -0.3 1.0 53.6 58.6 -0.9 0.4 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -5.4 -5.4 -2.9 1.2 57.7 60.0 -7.1 -5.8 -4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -2.1 -2.0 -2.0 1.4 59.1 62.1 -3.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 -2.4 -2.1 -3.7 1.8 67.7 68.1 -4.6 -3.2 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 0.6 49.2 54.6 -2.4 -1.3 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -7.0 -7.3 -3.6 1.5 65.0 65.9 -9.1 -8.2 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 -1.0 -1.0 -1.9 1.3 58.1 61.7 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.1 -3.1 1.4 62.3 63.9 -2.2 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -1.6 -2.4 1.5 61.4 64.7 -2.4 -1.8 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 -2.2 -2.3 -2.6 1.8 66.5 68.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 -1.5 -1.5 -2.7 1.9 66.9 69.3 -3.2 -2.2 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.0 1.3 59.6 61.6 -2.2 -1.2 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -0.9 -1.8 1.2 58.6 60.5 -2.2 -1.4 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 -0.6 -0.6 -2.7 1.7 64.8 66.6 -2.3 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 -1.5 -1.8 -0.9 0.5 47.4 52.7 -3.0 -1.8 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 -3.1 -3.1 -3.5 1.5 65.5 65.5 -4.6 -4.1 -3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.9 -0.7 0.8 49.7 55.8 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -5.9 -5.8 -4.5 1.4 67.7 66.1 -8.2 -6.9 -5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 -1.3 -1.6 -0.8 1.2 56.3 60.2 -2.3 -1.6 -1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 -1.7 -2.0 -0.9 0.5 48.8 53.4 -2.9 -2.0 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 -1.8 -2.0 -0.8 1.0 52.2 58.3 -2.7 -2.0 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -1.7 -1.6 -2.1 1.3 59.7 62.3 -2.8 -2.0 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 1.2 56.9 60.3 -2.9 -1.9 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.5 2.1 74.7 73.2 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -1.1 -0.6 1.1 55.6 59.4 -2.2 -1.3 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -2.6 -2.1 -2.5 1.3 59.5 61.1 -3.7 -2.8 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -3.5 -3.5 -3.9 1.5 66.9 66.4 -6.2 -4.6 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.8 49.7 56.1 -2.1 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------