***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -2.4 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 48.0 51.9 -2.1 0.3 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -1.4 -0.8 0.0 46.2 51.1 -3.0 -1.3 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 -1.3 0.1 -0.5 0.1 47.2 51.7 -0.8 0.7 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -7.4 -6.1 -3.5 0.0 45.0 51.0 -7.0 -5.9 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 -3.8 -1.3 -2.8 0.2 47.1 53.0 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -4.2 -1.4 -4.3 0.9 54.7 58.0 -3.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -3.5 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1 45.4 50.9 -2.9 -0.9 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -10.6 -7.4 -4.1 0.6 51.9 56.5 -10.3 -7.9 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 -3.1 -0.5 -2.3 0.3 49.1 53.6 -2.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -0.6 -3.6 0.6 51.1 55.4 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -0.3 -3.1 0.5 50.4 55.0 -2.0 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -1.5 -3.4 0.7 51.6 56.9 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -0.3 -3.6 0.9 55.1 58.3 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -3.3 -1.2 -2.5 0.3 49.4 53.3 -1.7 -1.2 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -2.9 -0.8 -2.6 0.0 45.2 50.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 -2.5 0.4 -3.5 0.6 51.4 55.8 -1.5 0.3 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -3.5 -1.8 -1.0 -0.3 42.9 50.0 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -5.1 -2.9 -4.1 0.7 52.3 56.1 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -1.5 -0.8 0.0 46.9 51.3 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -9.8 -3.7 -5.2 0.8 56.7 57.6 -9.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 -3.5 -0.5 -1.3 0.2 47.3 52.3 -2.4 -0.1 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -4.0 -1.8 -1.1 -0.1 44.0 50.4 -2.4 -1.5 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 -3.6 -1.8 -0.9 0.1 46.7 51.3 -3.0 -1.6 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -1.6 -2.7 0.4 48.6 53.8 -2.7 -1.5 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 -3.0 -0.6 -2.0 0.1 45.3 51.7 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 0.6 -0.4 -3.7 0.9 54.2 59.0 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -3.4 -0.5 -1.1 0.1 46.6 52.0 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -4.7 -2.2 -3.3 0.1 46.0 51.4 -4.4 -1.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -1.7 -4.0 -4.3 0.8 55.1 57.2 -6.1 -4.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 46.6 51.3 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------