***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 -4.1 -2.8 -2.5 -1.3 31.8 38.9 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -5.1 -4.2 -2.7 -1.4 29.9 38.3 -4.0 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 -2.7 -2.6 -2.4 -1.1 31.4 39.4 -2.2 -0.6 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -9.3 -8.0 -5.3 -1.2 32.2 39.4 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 -4.8 -4.2 -4.7 -1.2 32.1 39.7 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -4.5 -6.0 -0.5 39.0 45.1 -4.8 -4.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 -4.1 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30.6 38.8 -4.0 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -11.4 -10.4 -6.0 -0.9 35.1 43.0 -10.5 -9.4 -7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 -3.9 -3.7 -4.2 -1.1 33.0 40.4 -3.7 -1.8 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -3.7 -3.5 -5.6 -1.0 33.8 41.7 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.4 -5.1 -1.0 33.4 41.3 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -5.1 -5.1 -5.2 -0.7 35.4 43.5 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -4.0 -3.0 -5.4 -0.6 36.4 44.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -4.3 -1.1 34.2 41.1 -3.2 -1.5 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -2.5 -4.1 -1.0 34.3 41.3 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -2.8 -5.4 -0.9 34.6 42.1 -2.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 -4.3 -3.9 -2.8 -1.5 29.4 38.1 -3.8 -2.5 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -4.9 -6.2 -1.1 33.6 41.6 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -4.8 -4.1 -2.7 -1.3 30.4 38.6 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -9.3 -9.3 -7.4 -1.3 34.0 40.9 -9.3 -7.2 -6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -4.4 -3.5 -3.1 -1.2 32.1 39.6 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 -5.1 -3.7 -3.0 -1.5 28.7 37.6 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -4.4 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 31.2 39.8 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 -4.2 -4.0 -4.5 -1.0 33.0 41.1 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 -4.7 -3.3 -3.8 -1.3 31.3 38.9 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -3.5 -5.2 -0.4 38.1 46.6 -3.9 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -4.1 -3.0 -1.3 31.0 38.9 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -5.1 -1.2 33.2 40.1 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -8.0 -6.9 -6.4 -1.1 34.6 41.9 -6.9 -5.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 -5.0 -3.9 -2.6 -1.3 30.5 38.7 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------