***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -1.5 -0.7 0.6 48.1 53.5 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -3.4 -2.6 -1.3 0.2 42.1 50.2 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.7 48.8 54.5 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -6.2 -7.8 -3.3 0.8 49.6 55.7 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 -3.8 -2.3 -2.0 1.2 53.5 58.2 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 -1.8 -1.7 -3.1 2.3 65.6 68.1 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -2.5 -1.3 0.1 41.8 49.8 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 -5.7 -6.6 -3.1 1.9 58.8 64.8 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -1.0 -1.7 1.4 56.5 59.7 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -1.2 -2.8 1.7 58.4 62.5 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -1.9 -2.0 1.8 59.8 62.9 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 -1.7 -2.2 -2.1 2.2 60.6 66.6 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -1.5 -2.1 2.4 64.7 68.6 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -0.8 -1.9 1.4 54.4 58.9 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -1.0 -1.8 1.2 56.6 58.8 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 0.2 -1.1 -2.3 2.0 60.7 64.6 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 -3.3 -3.0 -1.6 -0.2 39.0 48.4 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -2.4 -3.4 -3.0 1.8 59.0 63.5 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.4 44.7 51.9 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -5.2 -6.9 -4.0 1.6 57.4 62.8 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -1.7 -0.9 1.0 52.4 56.7 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.7 -1.4 0.1 42.7 50.0 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 -3.9 -2.3 -1.0 0.8 49.2 55.1 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -1.5 -1.8 1.5 55.8 60.5 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.3 -1.3 0.9 49.4 55.5 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 -0.7 -0.4 -1.7 2.8 71.6 72.4 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 -0.7 -1.5 -0.8 0.7 49.0 54.2 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -1.8 -2.7 1.2 54.0 58.0 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -2.1 -3.2 -3.4 2.0 60.4 65.0 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -2.5 -1.0 0.3 44.0 51.4 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------