***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 33.5 36.9 43.4 107.1 61.7 55.3 14.2 27.2 41.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 31.3 31.2 43.4 112.3 66.1 58.3 18.8 28.3 31.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 38.4 40.9 43.5 104.4 58.5 54.1 24.0 30.6 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 51.2 42.4 43.7 92.5 45.0 46.1 25.9 45.4 57.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 41.8 36.9 45.9 98.1 50.9 49.7 28.0 36.3 49.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 36.3 30.5 46.6 98.0 47.9 49.5 25.5 31.5 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.5 30.4 43.2 114.2 67.4 58.9 18.1 21.4 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 63.7 72.9 53.4 106.1 60.7 54.1 45.5 55.0 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.0 34.1 47.5 100.8 55.8 51.2 20.2 32.0 39.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 28.0 47.3 52.7 103.5 58.7 52.6 29.5 35.1 48.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.2 32.4 43.9 100.3 53.6 51.0 25.1 32.0 43.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 41.6 38.6 44.8 103.6 58.3 53.5 29.9 35.8 43.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 45.8 44.2 46.2 100.9 53.5 52.0 28.1 41.2 56.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 50.1 49.1 55.6 105.3 59.3 54.3 29.6 46.3 53.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 36.3 21.6 37.7 85.4 43.5 43.8 16.1 27.3 42.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.5 29.1 42.3 97.2 50.5 49.7 23.7 28.9 44.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.5 39.3 43.7 118.2 68.4 60.1 18.6 25.0 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 40.5 44.4 59.9 105.3 59.8 53.4 26.9 35.0 48.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 37.1 39.6 43.4 108.7 62.6 56.7 21.7 34.1 42.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 46.2 47.3 74.6 112.1 61.8 57.4 33.5 40.2 48.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.9 35.9 44.7 102.0 56.4 52.5 17.8 32.3 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 38.8 40.8 45.2 115.2 68.0 59.4 21.1 28.5 40.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 32.9 32.7 44.9 104.8 56.8 54.6 19.5 31.4 35.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 46.1 41.0 52.4 103.0 57.6 52.6 30.8 38.9 50.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 40.0 46.2 49.2 102.1 59.5 52.1 18.6 34.2 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.5 35.8 45.6 99.5 53.8 51.4 27.8 35.0 41.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 34.9 44.4 48.4 107.4 63.3 55.3 16.3 27.8 47.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 35.1 24.8 39.3 87.2 41.6 43.8 18.7 28.6 35.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 72.1 74.9 66.6 109.3 62.2 55.5 46.9 66.9 80.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 17.1 35.5 43.1 109.6 64.9 57.1 16.3 25.8 37.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------