***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.8 5.5 8.5 90.6 53.8 43.8 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.6 4.5 8.0 86.8 54.5 40.9 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 8.0 8.9 91.3 55.5 44.1 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.3 9.8 84.7 56.9 44.3 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.2 10.5 93.1 58.0 46.9 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.6 11.3 98.3 55.9 50.5 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.4 3.6 7.9 88.6 52.2 41.6 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 11.8 11.1 91.6 54.4 47.1 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 1.3 5.0 10.8 95.8 58.0 46.9 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.3 11.6 94.8 55.8 47.5 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.1 9.8 94.0 57.9 47.6 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.1 9.4 92.6 55.7 47.4 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 9.4 10.4 99.2 55.3 50.3 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 11.1 88.7 56.3 43.6 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 0.7 2.6 8.2 74.8 56.5 41.8 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 8.5 9.8 95.3 58.3 48.4 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.5 7.5 81.5 52.3 40.4 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.4 12.9 94.4 56.3 46.8 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 6.3 8.2 86.6 55.1 41.2 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 9.2 14.3 88.6 53.8 46.0 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.9 5.8 9.6 92.4 55.9 45.4 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.3 7.7 79.0 52.7 40.5 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.2 8.8 87.7 55.0 42.3 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.1 11.4 93.5 57.9 45.5 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.9 8.3 10.3 89.0 56.4 44.9 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.3 9.4 93.2 54.5 48.1 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.5 9.7 91.6 54.8 44.6 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.9 8.7 9.0 81.8 58.0 44.2 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 12.4 13.6 93.1 55.0 46.0 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.7 5.2 8.2 89.6 54.3 41.9 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------