***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.9 12.0 115.8 64.0 56.0 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 5.6 11.1 11.3 114.9 66.5 54.8 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.8 11.8 113.8 65.7 56.9 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.9 12.1 12.7 119.8 68.0 58.0 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.0 12.8 119.3 69.7 58.3 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.1 13.0 115.7 68.0 57.4 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.5 11.4 118.7 69.4 54.2 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 22.7 24.0 15.0 122.8 71.6 59.4 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.1 13.1 116.7 70.7 58.2 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.8 14.6 119.1 72.4 58.8 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 9.3 13.2 12.2 118.6 71.4 57.5 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.7 12.6 121.8 70.2 58.8 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.0 11.7 12.8 118.6 67.9 58.0 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.0 11.7 15.0 111.9 65.8 57.8 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.9 11.6 116.8 65.8 56.9 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.7 11.8 118.1 69.7 57.6 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 8.4 11.6 125.4 69.7 55.7 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 14.4 16.6 16.6 117.4 71.7 59.5 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 8.4 11.2 111.8 64.7 55.0 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 15.6 18.2 20.5 123.3 71.7 60.2 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.8 11.8 12.4 118.5 67.1 58.1 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.7 11.7 121.1 67.7 56.8 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.7 8.4 11.6 108.3 63.7 55.3 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.8 14.3 112.1 67.7 58.3 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.8 13.7 118.0 63.7 56.5 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.9 11.5 13.5 125.0 67.8 60.6 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.5 13.3 116.4 63.9 55.4 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.8 9.7 11.7 117.0 67.1 57.3 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 27.6 18.3 119.1 72.0 59.9 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.8 7.0 11.4 113.0 65.8 54.6 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------