***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.1 11.7 107.0 63.0 53.9 1.6 5.2 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.6 11.5 106.4 60.1 52.4 1.1 2.9 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.6 7.8 12.1 106.2 60.9 53.6 2.0 6.0 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.8 12.4 98.5 55.9 51.9 2.6 8.6 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.7 15.6 13.3 110.8 58.8 55.0 2.8 11.2 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 8.3 10.8 14.7 113.4 60.7 57.0 5.0 6.7 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.7 11.5 108.8 61.1 53.2 1.9 4.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 19.2 20.6 15.5 117.4 62.5 57.9 8.5 16.8 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.7 13.0 14.1 115.8 66.0 57.3 3.3 9.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 10.8 13.6 15.4 116.5 62.2 57.6 6.1 9.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 10.1 10.4 12.7 113.4 58.5 55.8 4.8 8.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.4 11.0 13.2 116.6 63.1 57.7 2.7 7.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.5 14.1 118.7 61.3 58.4 3.8 9.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.3 17.4 16.2 112.6 61.0 54.7 8.5 14.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 5.5 10.8 85.1 54.8 49.3 1.7 3.9 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.3 12.7 111.6 56.8 55.7 1.4 9.2 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.0 11.8 116.0 63.7 55.6 1.8 8.4 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.7 11.0 17.5 116.7 60.8 57.4 3.9 7.2 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.8 11.8 105.4 61.5 52.3 2.5 5.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.7 22.2 124.0 65.9 59.7 3.3 10.1 12.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.6 12.9 12.9 112.2 64.3 56.2 2.9 6.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.9 12.2 111.4 63.2 54.8 3.2 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.1 12.2 12.8 107.2 63.3 53.0 1.4 5.9 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.2 14.7 15.2 111.1 58.6 55.1 4.6 9.4 15.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.1 9.1 13.7 110.7 61.6 55.0 2.1 5.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.6 13.8 112.0 61.5 57.6 2.4 4.6 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.0 13.1 110.2 63.5 54.6 2.4 5.9 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.5 7.7 11.5 92.0 54.7 51.0 1.8 6.2 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.6 19.5 19.6 120.0 63.0 58.1 8.7 15.1 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 5.8 9.3 11.5 104.1 60.4 52.1 2.4 4.1 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------