***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 2.6 5.8 11.2 113.7 70.1 61.0 0.4 1.5 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 4.1 4.9 12.6 143.2 78.3 68.5 0.5 1.1 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 3.1 4.9 10.6 105.5 63.9 58.5 0.5 2.0 5.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.3 6.3 8.8 70.6 43.1 42.9 3.2 6.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.4 3.9 9.3 72.9 42.4 42.5 2.1 5.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.0 3.2 7.6 64.1 39.6 39.0 1.6 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 5.7 6.8 12.3 142.4 79.1 67.4 0.7 1.9 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 9.5 11.8 92.8 50.9 50.1 5.9 9.2 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 4.3 2.4 9.5 76.5 43.8 44.2 1.2 3.7 5.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.3 3.3 11.1 84.1 45.6 46.7 1.8 4.5 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 4.6 2.6 9.2 77.6 43.3 44.2 1.6 3.6 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 4.1 3.1 9.6 84.4 48.4 47.7 2.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.0 2.8 8.9 70.5 40.3 41.6 2.6 5.0 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 4.1 6.8 13.2 106.5 65.1 59.6 1.1 3.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.2 7.2 67.3 53.6 46.4 0.3 2.0 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.8 3.1 8.0 67.6 40.4 40.9 2.0 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 4.7 6.5 12.8 154.0 80.4 69.8 0.7 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.5 3.4 12.8 91.9 48.9 50.3 1.8 3.4 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 5.0 6.6 12.2 132.4 75.5 66.5 0.4 1.2 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.6 17.7 110.9 58.7 56.8 2.3 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 4.1 3.4 9.8 85.7 51.5 49.8 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 6.4 7.8 13.7 153.4 79.0 70.7 0.6 1.7 3.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 2.6 3.9 11.7 115.3 72.6 62.9 0.2 1.5 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.7 11.5 94.1 56.4 53.7 2.0 3.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.7 4.1 11.5 91.4 53.2 50.8 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.3 3.7 8.8 70.4 40.4 42.0 1.8 4.6 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 4.3 6.7 12.4 110.5 65.9 58.6 0.4 3.3 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.0 1.2 7.1 61.7 44.2 41.1 0.7 2.5 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.1 15.0 103.5 56.5 54.7 3.8 9.1 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 3.8 4.5 12.1 132.9 77.1 66.3 0.8 1.9 3.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------