***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9.3 11.7 9.0 3.6 88.7 84.8 5.1 7.1 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 8.9 11.0 9.1 3.7 87.7 85.0 4.5 5.7 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 9.6 11.3 9.3 3.7 87.2 84.4 5.4 6.8 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 2.8 5.0 7.2 3.9 90.5 84.9 -1.3 0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 9.4 11.2 7.7 3.7 89.3 84.2 5.3 6.3 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 8.3 9.3 6.3 3.4 86.0 82.7 4.1 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 8.5 10.8 8.9 3.6 88.0 85.0 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 -0.1 1.9 6.5 3.2 87.1 82.1 -2.5 -1.7 -0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 9.7 11.8 8.4 3.6 88.7 83.7 5.7 7.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 9.5 11.0 7.4 3.4 87.6 82.8 5.3 6.6 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 9.7 11.0 7.5 3.5 88.6 84.1 5.2 7.3 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 9.2 10.4 7.2 3.3 88.0 83.0 4.8 6.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 9.0 10.5 6.9 3.3 85.8 82.6 4.8 7.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 10.3 11.8 8.7 3.7 86.8 83.3 5.3 7.7 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 9.3 10.7 7.8 4.1 90.7 85.9 4.6 6.1 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 9.7 11.6 7.2 3.5 87.5 83.8 5.5 7.6 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 8.4 10.0 8.8 3.5 85.7 84.2 3.9 5.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 9.1 10.3 7.0 3.3 85.8 82.0 4.9 5.8 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 9.3 11.5 9.3 3.8 88.1 84.9 4.7 6.0 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 5.2 6.1 4.8 2.9 84.2 79.9 1.3 2.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 9.8 11.6 8.9 3.7 88.1 84.2 5.4 7.1 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 9.4 11.2 9.0 3.6 87.4 84.3 4.4 5.7 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 9.1 12.0 9.4 3.8 88.1 84.6 5.0 6.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 9.7 11.4 8.5 3.6 86.9 83.1 5.5 7.3 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 8.5 10.9 7.6 3.7 89.8 84.8 4.4 5.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 8.4 10.3 6.3 3.0 85.4 81.6 4.8 6.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.5 11.4 8.3 3.6 89.1 84.7 4.7 6.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 10.0 12.1 7.7 4.0 89.9 85.1 5.3 6.4 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 5.5 6.5 6.1 3.1 85.6 81.2 1.4 2.9 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 8.6 11.3 9.2 3.7 88.6 85.2 4.5 5.8 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------