***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 8.5 10.8 9.0 2.0 63.0 65.6 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 6.9 9.6 9.2 2.1 66.9 66.1 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 8.0 9.6 9.2 2.0 62.8 65.6 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.2 2.9 7.1 2.1 66.2 66.3 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.5 7.4 1.9 62.1 65.0 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 7.8 7.9 5.8 1.6 61.4 62.9 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.4 8.7 9.0 2.0 66.1 65.6 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -0.6 0.7 6.3 1.8 63.3 63.7 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 8.3 9.2 8.1 1.9 60.9 64.2 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 8.6 9.5 7.1 1.8 61.9 63.9 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 8.8 9.4 7.2 1.8 62.1 64.1 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.3 10.3 7.0 1.7 62.1 63.1 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.7 9.0 6.3 1.5 59.8 61.9 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 8.9 11.6 8.5 2.2 64.1 66.5 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 10.2 9.7 7.5 2.2 67.7 67.0 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 9.3 10.4 6.8 1.7 61.4 63.4 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 6.5 9.0 8.9 2.0 66.8 65.7 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 8.3 9.8 6.8 1.9 61.9 64.2 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 6.9 9.8 9.4 2.2 66.3 66.3 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 3.8 6.7 4.6 1.8 64.5 63.6 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.3 8.7 1.9 61.7 65.0 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.8 10.3 9.2 2.1 66.0 66.1 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.4 11.0 9.5 2.2 64.8 66.6 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 8.8 9.7 8.2 2.1 61.9 65.4 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.2 8.2 7.4 2.0 63.9 66.2 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.3 9.0 6.1 1.4 60.0 61.3 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 8.0 8.1 8.2 2.0 64.1 65.8 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 10.6 8.9 7.4 2.1 65.9 65.8 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 5.2 6.5 5.9 2.0 62.9 64.4 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.6 9.0 9.2 2.1 65.7 65.8 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------