***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 8.3 9.5 8.4 2.4 74.5 68.1 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.0 9.1 8.4 2.5 71.9 68.1 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.7 8.6 2.4 71.1 67.2 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 2.6 1.3 6.5 2.6 72.2 68.3 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 8.7 9.1 6.9 2.4 71.4 66.8 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 8.0 7.7 5.4 2.0 70.0 64.6 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.5 9.0 8.3 2.4 72.6 68.1 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -0.5 -0.7 5.6 1.7 69.2 63.5 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.3 9.0 7.5 2.2 69.2 65.7 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.6 8.0 6.5 2.0 68.6 64.2 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 9.0 8.7 6.6 2.2 70.5 66.2 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 8.6 8.5 6.3 1.9 69.8 65.0 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 9.2 9.2 5.9 1.9 68.9 65.0 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.3 8.3 7.7 2.2 65.9 64.6 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.5 6.8 2.7 71.6 69.8 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.5 6.3 2.2 69.6 66.2 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.9 8.1 2.3 71.4 67.3 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.1 6.1 1.8 67.4 62.7 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.9 8.7 2.6 71.2 68.0 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 4.0 3.7 1.2 65.3 59.8 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.2 8.9 8.1 2.4 72.0 66.6 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.9 7.7 8.3 2.4 71.5 67.1 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 8.2 7.9 8.7 2.5 69.1 67.4 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.7 7.8 7.6 2.1 67.3 64.5 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.6 6.8 2.4 73.6 67.8 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.5 5.6 1.8 72.2 65.2 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 8.2 9.6 7.6 2.4 74.3 67.9 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.5 8.3 6.8 2.7 71.5 68.5 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.7 3.9 5.1 1.6 65.8 61.3 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 7.8 9.0 8.5 2.5 73.0 68.2 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------