***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 10.1 11.7 9.1 3.9 81.2 77.8 3.6 5.4 8.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 8.9 12.3 9.1 4.1 84.3 78.6 3.7 5.2 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 10.4 12.2 9.3 4.0 80.4 77.3 3.9 5.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 4.1 6.0 7.2 4.1 81.1 78.0 -2.6 0.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.5 7.6 3.9 77.5 76.9 4.4 6.0 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 9.0 10.2 6.2 3.4 78.7 75.3 3.9 5.5 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 8.7 11.7 8.9 3.9 84.3 78.6 3.5 5.1 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 0.6 1.0 6.2 3.1 74.4 73.1 -2.8 -0.5 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 11.1 12.2 8.3 3.8 76.5 75.8 3.7 6.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 10.1 11.2 7.2 3.4 75.0 74.1 3.8 6.9 8.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 10.2 11.2 7.3 3.6 76.2 76.2 3.7 6.3 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.4 6.9 3.2 76.0 74.6 3.5 6.4 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 9.5 10.6 6.5 3.2 76.5 74.7 4.9 6.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 10.7 10.6 8.4 3.7 74.4 74.7 4.2 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 9.2 10.7 7.4 4.2 81.2 78.4 3.3 6.2 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 10.4 11.4 7.0 3.7 77.3 76.4 5.3 6.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 8.5 11.0 8.7 3.9 82.7 78.3 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.8 9.5 6.8 3.2 73.3 72.6 3.4 6.2 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 8.7 12.4 9.3 4.1 84.2 78.4 3.7 5.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.8 5.3 4.3 2.4 73.6 69.4 0.4 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.7 8.9 3.9 77.7 76.6 4.0 5.6 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 9.3 12.6 9.0 4.0 83.7 78.6 4.4 5.8 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 9.7 12.5 9.4 4.1 83.5 77.7 4.3 5.6 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 11.3 12.3 8.3 3.6 75.0 74.7 3.8 6.9 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 9.9 11.1 7.5 3.9 79.9 77.6 3.8 5.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 9.4 10.2 6.1 2.9 76.6 73.5 5.0 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 10.2 11.4 8.3 3.8 80.6 77.9 3.6 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 11.0 13.2 7.4 4.2 80.7 77.8 4.7 6.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 5.1 6.0 5.8 2.8 73.0 71.3 0.1 2.4 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 8.9 12.0 9.2 4.1 83.6 78.4 3.8 5.3 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------