***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 10.7 11.8 9.7 6.2 93.8 91.5 1.4 3.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 11.0 11.8 9.7 6.1 91.5 90.4 1.9 4.9 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 12.5 13.1 10.1 6.3 92.0 90.0 3.0 5.7 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 3.5 5.8 7.8 6.8 92.4 91.7 -2.5 -0.4 2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.7 11.8 8.7 6.5 91.9 90.2 2.6 5.1 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.0 10.9 7.8 6.7 93.8 91.9 1.8 4.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 10.5 11.3 9.3 5.8 91.8 90.3 1.7 4.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.7 4.2 8.1 6.3 91.3 88.4 -3.0 -1.3 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 12.1 13.1 9.7 6.4 92.0 89.5 3.2 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.7 12.2 8.9 6.5 91.0 88.3 3.7 6.4 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 11.6 12.3 8.9 6.6 91.5 89.9 2.8 5.4 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 11.2 12.0 8.5 6.4 92.0 90.0 3.7 5.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.5 11.8 8.8 6.5 90.8 90.6 3.0 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 13.0 14.0 10.2 6.6 91.2 88.9 4.4 6.8 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 9.1 12.4 9.7 7.2 94.9 94.4 4.2 6.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.8 8.6 6.6 92.0 91.3 3.5 5.6 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 9.7 10.9 9.2 5.8 90.4 89.0 2.4 5.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 8.5 10.7 8.6 6.5 90.4 88.2 3.6 5.2 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 11.4 12.3 9.9 6.2 91.6 90.3 2.5 5.0 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 5.9 7.7 6.6 6.0 90.3 88.1 0.4 1.9 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.6 12.5 10.2 6.6 92.2 90.3 3.1 5.9 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.9 9.7 6.0 91.1 89.5 2.8 5.8 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 11.0 12.4 10.0 6.3 91.3 90.0 3.0 5.3 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 12.6 13.9 9.9 6.5 90.3 88.3 3.9 6.6 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 9.4 10.7 8.8 6.4 93.0 91.6 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 9.0 11.8 7.5 5.9 91.8 90.5 3.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.0 9.0 6.1 92.9 91.0 2.2 4.6 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.2 13.2 9.1 7.2 93.1 92.8 5.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 7.2 8.3 7.7 6.2 89.4 87.7 0.7 2.4 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 10.6 11.8 9.8 6.2 92.4 90.9 1.8 4.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------