***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 0.0 2.5 1.1 2.9 83.8 73.9 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 -0.4 1.8 0.9 2.8 82.3 73.4 -4.0 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 1.8 3.5 0.7 2.9 82.7 75.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 -4.8 -3.0 -1.7 3.2 79.6 75.5 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 -1.0 -0.1 -1.6 3.0 78.1 74.0 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 -1.8 -1.6 -3.9 2.5 69.0 69.2 -4.8 -4.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 -0.5 1.9 1.0 2.9 84.0 73.4 -4.0 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 -6.2 -6.1 -3.4 2.7 70.5 70.4 -10.5 -9.4 -7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 -0.5 0.3 -0.9 2.9 78.8 73.3 -3.7 -1.8 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 -0.9 -0.4 -2.4 2.9 75.0 72.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -0.6 -2.0 2.9 74.3 73.6 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -1.4 -1.0 -2.4 2.7 73.6 72.2 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 -0.8 -0.5 -2.8 2.6 73.4 71.0 -3.3 -2.4 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 0.3 1.1 -1.0 2.8 78.0 73.3 -3.2 -1.5 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 -0.3 0.2 -1.1 3.3 79.0 76.8 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 0.0 0.2 -2.4 2.9 71.1 73.2 -2.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -0.7 0.4 0.9 2.7 78.8 71.9 -3.8 -2.5 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 -2.6 -2.2 -3.0 2.8 72.5 71.1 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 -0.1 1.8 0.8 2.8 82.8 74.1 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -4.8 -6.7 -5.3 2.2 62.5 64.5 -9.3 -7.2 -6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 -0.7 1.4 0.2 2.9 82.1 73.9 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 -0.5 1.1 0.9 2.8 81.4 73.1 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 -0.6 1.0 0.4 2.9 82.6 74.9 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 -0.5 0.1 -1.2 2.9 77.5 73.7 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -1.1 0.4 -0.8 3.1 82.2 75.5 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 -0.4 -1.2 -2.9 2.2 69.3 68.9 -3.9 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 -0.6 1.3 0.2 3.1 83.4 74.5 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 -1.8 -1.4 -1.5 3.2 77.4 75.4 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 -2.9 -3.3 -3.9 2.6 69.6 68.5 -6.9 -5.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 -0.1 2.2 1.0 2.9 83.7 74.1 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------