***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 1.3 2.3 2.2 4.6 89.9 84.7 -2.8 -1.2 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 0.1 2.4 1.9 4.3 89.6 83.9 -3.9 -1.6 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 2.8 5.1 1.8 4.4 90.0 85.3 -1.9 -0.3 2.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 -2.0 1.1 -0.7 4.9 93.8 88.7 -8.3 -7.8 -2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 -0.5 1.3 -0.5 4.8 90.6 86.6 -3.5 -2.8 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 -1.5 -0.1 -2.5 4.4 87.3 83.4 -5.1 -3.2 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 0.1 2.1 2.0 4.4 88.3 84.1 -3.2 -2.0 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 -5.4 -4.4 -1.9 4.5 84.7 81.8 -9.5 -7.6 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 0.9 1.8 0.4 4.7 89.2 85.0 -3.5 -1.9 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 -0.2 1.2 -1.0 4.7 87.2 83.6 -2.9 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 -0.2 1.8 -0.9 4.7 90.7 85.5 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 -1.4 0.5 -1.1 4.5 88.2 83.9 -4.3 -3.4 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 -0.7 1.1 -1.4 4.5 86.8 83.9 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 0.6 2.3 0.2 4.5 88.6 82.9 -2.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 0.4 2.8 -0.2 4.6 95.6 89.2 -3.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 0.6 2.0 -1.2 4.7 90.2 86.1 -3.0 -1.3 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 -0.1 1.8 2.0 4.3 87.1 82.2 -3.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -2.1 -0.9 -1.5 4.7 88.3 82.7 -4.7 -3.6 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 0.4 2.1 1.8 4.2 89.7 84.1 -3.3 -2.1 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 -5.0 -3.2 -3.5 4.1 82.8 78.3 -8.7 -7.2 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 0.1 2.0 1.4 4.7 90.5 85.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 -0.2 1.1 1.9 4.3 88.6 82.3 -3.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 0.2 1.4 1.4 4.3 88.9 84.6 -3.3 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 -0.4 1.3 0.0 4.6 90.2 84.0 -3.5 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 -0.1 2.3 0.3 4.7 93.9 86.9 -3.0 -2.3 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 -0.6 0.5 -1.4 4.1 85.8 82.7 -3.5 -2.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 1.4 3.0 1.4 4.7 90.5 85.4 -3.7 -1.4 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 -0.7 1.0 -0.5 4.8 93.0 88.3 -4.7 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 -1.8 0.1 -2.2 4.4 86.5 80.6 -6.5 -4.6 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 0.9 2.6 2.0 4.3 89.7 84.6 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------