***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.01.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.02.2016.-07.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.6 3.4 2.6 6.3 99.1 97.1 -4.4 -1.8 0.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.6 2.8 6.4 100.0 97.9 -4.9 -2.5 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.3 5.2 2.5 6.1 99.8 96.9 -2.5 -0.4 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.9 1.6 0.6 6.9 99.7 98.3 -8.8 -6.8 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.7 0.7 6.4 99.4 96.6 -4.8 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.7 1.2 -1.3 6.4 96.9 96.2 -5.5 -4.3 -2.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.7 2.7 6.3 100.0 97.6 -4.7 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.1 -2.6 -0.4 7.0 98.1 95.7 -10.7 -7.7 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.1 2.6 1.0 6.3 99.9 96.9 -4.3 -2.1 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 -0.2 2.4 0.1 6.7 98.9 95.7 -4.5 -2.5 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 -0.8 2.1 0.1 6.2 98.6 95.5 -4.7 -3.0 -1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.7 0.9 0.1 6.7 97.8 96.0 -5.5 -4.5 -2.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -1.1 1.3 -0.4 6.3 96.5 95.0 -5.0 -3.3 -2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.8 1.2 6.8 100.0 97.1 -3.2 -1.1 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.6 1.7 1.8 6.8 100.0 99.1 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.5 -0.4 6.2 96.7 95.3 -3.6 -2.8 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.4 1.7 2.9 6.5 100.0 98.1 -5.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -2.6 0.5 -0.1 7.0 99.7 96.3 -6.2 -4.7 -3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.6 2.5 6.2 100.0 97.4 -4.3 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.9 -0.3 -1.0 7.9 99.6 96.7 -10.6 -8.9 -7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.3 2.3 2.4 6.5 100.0 97.6 -3.7 -2.3 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.6 2.9 6.6 100.0 98.5 -5.1 -1.4 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 -0.1 2.4 1.9 6.0 100.0 96.3 -4.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 -0.6 2.8 1.1 6.5 99.6 96.5 -4.2 -2.1 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.1 2.4 1.8 6.7 98.7 96.9 -4.5 -2.8 -1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -1.4 3.2 -0.2 6.7 96.4 95.6 -4.9 -3.6 -2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.4 4.9 2.1 6.6 98.2 96.7 -4.5 -2.7 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.7 0.2 1.1 6.9 99.4 98.4 -5.4 -4.1 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -0.9 0.9 -1.0 7.2 97.1 95.3 -7.6 -5.4 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.7 3.2 2.7 6.3 100.0 97.5 -4.5 -1.7 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------