***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 14.8 11.8 29.9 66.5 28.8 30.4 14.3 28.1 41.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.4 21.8 27.6 74.9 38.0 35.9 20.0 27.4 30.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 19.0 25.4 30.3 69.4 31.6 32.3 26.1 34.5 50.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 26.3 31.6 35.4 70.9 31.5 33.3 34.1 45.4 60.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 25.0 31.3 34.2 66.7 31.1 30.1 34.6 42.3 49.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 23.3 23.3 29.6 60.6 21.4 24.9 27.5 33.1 47.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 13.3 20.7 27.3 75.0 38.2 35.7 19.7 21.4 26.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 45.3 39.1 35.7 67.3 27.0 29.6 50.5 69.4 82.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.0 35.6 68.5 30.7 30.9 23.1 33.3 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 29.7 28.4 37.6 69.0 29.0 30.3 28.9 42.3 53.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 22.0 26.3 33.1 67.0 29.1 30.0 27.4 33.2 47.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 23.3 25.4 31.1 65.0 25.5 28.6 29.9 36.7 45.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 26.8 23.2 32.1 61.3 20.4 25.1 29.5 39.4 55.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 31.6 31.4 40.0 73.6 32.3 33.0 31.4 43.7 61.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 16.3 23.3 34.4 77.3 39.5 39.1 18.6 26.9 34.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 20.8 21.3 31.5 63.8 25.3 27.6 23.8 33.4 44.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 16.5 22.6 26.8 74.8 39.2 36.0 19.8 24.6 34.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 26.4 28.9 39.8 69.7 29.5 30.6 30.4 41.3 50.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 16.9 25.8 28.6 74.4 36.7 35.4 24.3 32.5 40.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 27.6 31.9 47.7 69.6 30.0 31.0 32.9 45.8 50.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 21.6 20.5 32.5 66.2 28.8 30.0 21.4 33.8 48.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 16.7 22.4 28.5 74.8 37.5 36.3 21.4 27.5 35.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 18.6 24.5 31.3 73.9 35.6 34.7 22.9 31.4 35.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 29.9 34.7 36.8 71.0 30.9 31.9 36.3 44.8 53.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 21.1 18.9 33.7 64.1 25.5 28.2 23.0 40.8 48.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 22.5 22.7 31.4 64.8 24.5 28.6 29.6 33.3 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 17.0 18.1 31.2 65.4 26.6 29.1 20.0 28.9 43.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 18.6 23.1 33.4 72.7 34.3 34.9 23.1 27.6 35.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 46.6 47.8 42.6 70.1 29.4 30.9 51.7 65.7 83.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.4 20.0 28.4 74.1 36.9 35.3 17.9 25.3 32.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------