***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.4 4.0 7.7 70.6 45.6 38.1 2.0 5.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 0.9 3.2 7.4 83.4 52.1 41.6 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 3.7 8.1 75.9 49.2 39.8 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.5 12.8 10.6 93.2 60.5 46.6 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.8 9.5 10.4 84.1 52.5 42.6 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.8 8.7 69.5 46.7 39.1 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.2 3.0 7.4 85.5 53.0 42.4 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 13.4 18.7 10.8 81.9 50.9 43.0 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.3 11.0 82.8 51.7 41.1 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.1 11.5 11.7 83.9 52.3 42.3 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.0 10.1 82.3 52.8 42.3 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.1 8.9 9.5 78.8 50.5 42.3 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.6 8.9 9.5 72.8 46.6 40.1 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 9.8 11.5 86.1 51.6 40.5 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.7 13.2 11.1 111.4 68.4 52.5 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.1 7.5 9.4 77.1 50.3 41.3 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.4 7.1 83.4 53.1 42.5 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 10.8 12.3 84.9 53.1 43.0 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.2 4.3 7.9 83.8 53.0 41.4 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.1 13.7 82.1 48.4 43.9 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.3 9.3 75.8 48.2 39.3 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 1.5 4.8 7.8 84.8 53.3 42.3 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.0 4.7 8.9 85.3 54.3 41.1 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.7 83.2 53.1 41.4 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.6 9.0 73.3 47.7 39.1 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.4 8.3 9.1 76.8 49.7 41.9 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.7 3.6 8.2 71.0 45.1 38.3 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.5 10.5 98.4 62.8 48.1 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 11.4 16.4 12.8 83.7 50.6 42.9 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 1.1 3.2 7.7 81.9 51.0 41.0 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------