***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.7 2.4 8.3 66.3 41.4 37.1 1.6 3.7 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.9 2.7 7.4 70.6 47.1 40.2 1.5 2.8 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.4 5.5 8.7 73.0 46.4 40.0 2.6 6.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.6 9.8 75.5 49.9 42.1 3.9 8.6 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.7 10.0 76.7 48.3 42.1 3.1 9.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 4.9 7.7 69.6 43.0 37.5 3.5 6.7 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.8 7.3 70.1 47.2 40.0 2.2 4.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.5 13.1 10.1 75.8 45.7 41.3 7.2 14.8 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.2 10.1 76.7 48.2 41.3 2.7 6.1 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.2 10.6 79.9 47.6 42.7 3.8 6.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.1 9.7 76.6 47.0 41.5 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.3 9.0 73.8 44.7 40.2 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.6 9.2 74.6 42.6 40.6 3.6 7.7 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.2 11.9 82.8 49.6 42.0 6.5 11.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.1 8.7 73.1 51.4 43.1 0.6 4.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.2 9.1 75.8 46.1 41.4 2.6 6.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.2 5.8 7.7 72.3 49.0 41.7 2.3 6.2 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.1 10.7 76.2 46.1 40.9 3.0 6.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.9 3.7 7.8 71.4 46.8 40.1 2.9 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.9 5.3 12.3 69.5 43.7 39.3 4.3 7.7 9.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.8 4.3 9.3 72.4 45.2 39.7 3.4 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.8 4.7 8.3 74.2 48.9 42.7 2.6 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.3 4.5 8.8 73.3 45.9 39.6 1.7 5.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.8 6.5 10.6 78.7 47.1 40.8 4.2 8.9 15.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.7 68.8 42.4 38.0 3.4 5.8 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.1 8.7 72.1 45.8 39.3 1.6 4.3 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.2 8.6 65.2 39.6 36.2 4.2 6.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.5 9.1 78.5 52.2 44.2 0.5 5.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.6 11.8 11.3 73.2 45.3 40.0 7.4 13.3 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.8 7.5 69.6 46.8 39.1 2.2 4.4 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------