***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-05.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 0.6 0.1 3.3 35.1 31.2 25.3 0.1 1.9 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.1 1.5 3.9 51.6 40.4 33.6 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 0.8 1.1 2.9 32.1 31.6 26.0 1.2 2.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.2 4.6 36.9 38.4 32.1 5.8 7.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.3 1.3 2.9 23.9 24.3 21.2 5.4 7.9 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 1.7 1.2 2.5 21.6 26.1 20.3 2.5 6.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.5 4.0 53.7 41.8 33.1 1.5 3.3 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 3.6 3.1 2.8 21.8 23.3 20.2 7.6 12.2 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.3 1.6 2.7 25.0 26.7 21.7 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 1.3 0.6 2.8 22.7 23.1 19.7 2.7 6.1 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 1.5 1.6 2.8 23.7 23.7 21.5 3.6 6.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.4 2.4 21.3 24.0 20.8 2.3 4.2 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.1 2.5 19.0 22.6 19.4 3.5 7.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 1.0 2.8 2.9 25.4 26.5 22.2 3.2 5.0 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.1 1.5 4.9 45.0 49.8 41.2 0.3 1.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 1.8 1.0 2.7 22.2 24.5 21.5 4.5 6.4 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.2 1.9 4.3 60.9 45.2 36.9 0.8 2.5 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.9 22.7 23.6 19.9 2.9 5.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.0 0.8 3.5 45.7 37.7 31.8 0.7 2.4 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 1.0 1.4 3.8 24.6 25.3 21.6 2.5 4.8 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 1.7 3.0 3.1 28.7 30.0 24.4 3.3 4.4 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.4 2.0 4.2 56.6 44.4 36.5 0.5 3.1 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 0.8 0.7 3.1 37.3 32.6 28.4 0.8 2.0 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 2.4 3.0 2.7 24.3 27.0 22.0 3.5 6.0 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 2.1 1.3 3.6 29.8 28.1 23.7 2.3 7.1 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 1.5 1.4 2.5 21.0 25.8 21.1 3.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 1.1 0.5 3.6 35.5 30.8 24.8 0.6 4.3 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.9 1.3 4.2 37.1 40.2 34.2 0.9 2.0 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 2.7 1.8 3.3 24.4 23.6 20.8 4.1 10.4 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.0 1.3 3.7 47.0 38.5 31.1 1.1 2.9 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------