***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.01.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 8.8 9.9 8.0 2.5 80.1 76.5 4.6 6.0 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 8.4 9.4 8.2 2.4 79.8 76.2 3.7 5.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 8.7 9.7 8.5 2.5 79.4 74.5 5.0 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.4 0.3 3.6 0.7 55.4 55.7 -1.5 0.0 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 8.4 9.3 6.3 2.1 74.6 71.1 4.9 5.8 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 7.5 8.1 4.9 2.0 74.0 72.2 3.3 5.2 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 8.3 9.3 8.1 2.4 82.5 77.7 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -0.4 0.0 5.8 2.3 77.1 74.3 -2.6 -1.8 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.9 7.5 2.4 78.6 74.4 5.2 6.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 8.8 9.7 6.7 2.5 78.7 75.5 5.0 6.2 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 8.7 9.6 6.5 2.0 74.5 70.7 5.2 6.4 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.9 6.0 2.0 73.0 70.8 4.6 6.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 8.4 9.0 5.9 2.1 74.9 72.3 4.7 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 9.4 10.3 8.1 2.6 77.7 74.8 5.0 6.9 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.5 3.8 -0.2 44.9 46.0 4.4 5.7 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.7 9.2 5.7 1.8 72.1 69.2 5.2 6.6 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 8.0 9.1 8.0 2.4 80.8 76.9 3.4 4.9 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.3 6.9 2.9 82.5 79.4 4.3 5.1 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 8.6 9.7 8.3 2.4 78.8 75.1 4.2 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 4.8 6.1 5.1 3.1 86.9 83.3 0.9 1.8 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 8.9 10.0 8.1 2.4 78.6 74.6 5.0 6.2 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 8.5 9.8 8.0 2.1 77.4 73.7 3.8 5.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 8.1 9.2 8.4 2.3 77.7 73.5 4.1 5.7 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 9.2 10.2 8.0 2.6 79.2 75.8 5.4 6.6 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 7.7 8.6 6.5 2.3 76.6 74.5 3.8 5.1 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 8.0 8.4 5.5 2.3 77.7 76.8 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.5 9.4 7.7 2.7 81.8 79.0 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.0 3.7 0.1 48.8 49.7 4.7 6.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 5.1 5.8 6.5 3.1 84.4 81.7 0.5 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 8.3 9.4 8.2 2.4 80.1 75.9 3.8 5.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------