***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.01.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 10.5 10.3 9.1 2.1 69.0 66.4 4.8 7.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 9.0 8.3 9.0 2.0 68.3 66.4 4.4 5.4 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 10.4 9.4 9.5 2.1 68.6 65.7 5.5 6.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.5 2.4 6.2 1.6 62.9 61.3 -1.6 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 10.0 9.6 7.7 2.1 66.6 64.8 4.5 6.5 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 6.7 9.5 6.1 2.2 66.7 64.6 4.3 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 8.9 8.1 9.0 2.1 67.9 67.0 4.1 5.4 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -1.1 1.3 6.7 2.1 66.2 64.6 -3.0 -1.8 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.9 8.4 2.2 67.0 65.3 5.5 7.3 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 10.4 9.4 7.5 2.3 67.1 65.1 5.1 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 10.4 9.9 7.7 2.2 67.3 65.3 4.9 7.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 10.1 9.4 7.4 2.1 67.6 64.9 5.0 7.4 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 10.6 11.5 6.7 2.3 70.6 66.8 5.7 7.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 11.6 10.5 8.5 2.1 66.8 64.3 5.1 7.9 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 9.3 8.0 6.9 1.7 63.0 62.5 4.1 6.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 10.7 10.3 7.2 2.2 68.0 65.2 5.9 7.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.5 7.8 9.0 2.0 69.5 66.9 3.9 5.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 9.4 8.8 7.4 2.3 67.2 64.9 5.2 6.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.3 8.9 9.3 2.0 67.4 65.8 4.0 5.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.7 5.0 2.2 67.3 65.6 1.4 3.8 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.3 9.0 2.2 68.3 65.7 5.4 6.2 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 9.2 8.3 9.1 2.0 67.9 66.3 4.2 5.9 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 9.9 9.3 9.5 2.0 67.4 65.1 5.1 6.4 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 10.3 9.8 8.5 2.2 66.9 64.5 5.6 6.7 9.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 9.7 8.6 7.5 2.2 67.9 66.3 4.1 6.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 10.0 11.1 6.7 2.4 71.1 68.2 6.0 7.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 10.1 9.7 8.4 2.1 69.5 66.7 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.6 6.4 1.6 61.0 60.4 3.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.9 6.5 6.6 2.2 66.8 64.9 0.9 4.0 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 9.2 8.4 9.0 2.0 68.0 66.3 4.1 5.7 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------